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ACUS11 KWNS 130239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130239=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-130415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0467
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Areas affected...portions of the ArkLaTex

Concerning...Tornado Watch 116...

Valid 130239Z - 130415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 116 continues.

SUMMARY...A well developed bowing MCS over far northeast TX should
continue eastward across portions of AR and LA over the next several
hours. The environment remains favorable for damaging wind gusts and
QLCS tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...As of 0245 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
well-developed bowing MCS located near the northern TX/LA border.
Ahead of the line, warm advection beneath and 40-50 kt low-level jet
is transporting rich boundary-layer moisture (TDs upper 60s low 70s
F) northward, slowing nocturnal stabilization. Continued advection
of the warm and moist airmass is contributing to roughly 1500-2000
J/kg of MLCAPE, which should continue to support the MCS as it moves
eastward into LA/AR. In response to the strengthening flow beneath
the low-level jet, stronger low-level shear has developed, with ESRH
of 200-400 M2/s2 observed via regional VAD VWPs. The strengthening
flow and greater shear should continue to support downward momentum
transport conducive to damaging wind gusts. A few QLCS tornadoes
also appear likely given the magnitude of low-level shear and a well
developed rear-inflow jet as observed by KSHV.

Several recent attempts at discrete ci ahead of the line also hint
at a conditional risk for a supercell or two given the favorable
deep-layer shear (35-45 kt) and potential for low-level updraft
rotation. While uncertain, should a storm develop and remain ahead
of the line it would likely present a risk for tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts through this evening.

..Lyons.. 04/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!saHyUG1p8FsPoZW7zXjbrzTlX7FFTlfxZDMMLgh6xRR3i8-oiEh_ODcubpWnhqSGu8rAojMJ$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31319412 31409466 31569490 31629491 31739482 31939468
32149459 32419453 32659448 32839454 33149468 33409472
33699443 33899387 33939324 33879282 33769243 33509223
33349222 32989211 32489212 32139227 31839249 31559278
31379321 31329372 31319412=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 050116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050115=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-050315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0467
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0815 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 050115Z - 050315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind and hail risk increasing. Watch south and
west of WW117 may be needed within the next hour.

DISCUSSION...The surface dry line has retreated westward into
northwestern Oklahoma within the last couple of hours with moisture
increasing across central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. Mid 60s dew
points have spread as northward into northeastern Kansas and as far
west as the Oklahoma City Metro. 00z soundings still show inhibition
firmly in place, which has kept warm sector initiation limited.
Inhibition has weakened somewhat to the west near the dry line.
However, development has been ongoing near the merging of the cold
front and dry line in northern Kansas. Deep layer shear vectors are
parallel to the approaching front, which has tended to keep storms
on the boundary with linear storm modes. This will likely continue
as further initiation spreads southward into southern Kansas and
Oklahoma with the approaching front this evening. Storms will likely
be slightly elevated atop the frontal surface, given inhibition
below 850-700 mb. The profile becomes very unstable above the CIN
layer, with MUCAPE around 3000 J/kg observed from OUN and TOP. Given
this environment, threats will include damaging winds and severe
hail. A downstream watch will be needed within the next hour.

..Thornton/Thompson.. 04/05/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5402NrWYLETZo85mVOhm_hJyH1eocTfhk6ZN76mcY8baejPTZZAJVq_duzkeorQCj0o3OkhWy= Zk-miDMO6PAc2m71sM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 38149679 38969632 40459513 40649441 40549377 40119366
39459374 39149386 38879394 37689451 36699468 36439484
35959558 35849620 35789673 35809713 35929772 36019797
36149808 36269815 36859776 38149679=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 162324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162323=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-170130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0467
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Areas affected...Parts of northeast and east central Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 119...

Valid 162323Z - 170130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 119
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for widely scattered additional strong to severe thunderstorm development near/east of Columbia and Jefferson City
into areas northwest of St. Louis may still not be negligible.=20
However, it appears to be lowering and likely to diminish further
with the loss of daytime heating. If current trends continue, the
watch may be cancelled within the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of an initial band of weakening convection
which has spread east of the Mississippi River, a moistening
low-level environment has contributed to a corridor of increasing
potential instability across much of northeastern into east central
and south central Missouri. This is ahead of a remnant dryline
advancing across/east of the Kirksville, Columbia and Springfield vicinities.=20=20

Renewed discrete thunderstorm development is ongoing as far south as
areas to the southeast of Kirksville, with additional deepening=20
convection noted near/west of Columbia and Jefferson City. Some
convection allowing guidance, including the High Resolution Rapid
Refresh suggest further intensification of the southern convective
development might still be possible, before spreading near/to the
northwest of the Greater St. Louis area through 00-02Z. Based on
the Rapid Refresh forecast track of a weakening 500 mb jet core, and
associated mid-level subsidence/warming, this would seem be the southern/southeastern limit for stronger convective development.=20
However, based on latest water vapor imagery, the potential for new
storms south of the Hannibal/Quincy area is becoming low.

..Kerr.. 04/16/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8eOE8QVc3QIjAjisBSH4Ohg1IJZOiHkjs1IrzqAboz8j_wGeErB6QZ7CWCA4u5Rb-GdobbWCt= XW2dwR4tJJP_d4XWwM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 39749206 40139168 40019060 39389045 38759092 38429160
38519240 39079239 39749206=20


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