• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0453

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, April 12, 2022 13:48:58
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    ACUS11 KWNS 121348
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121348=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-121745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0453
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0848 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern Montana...far northwestern
    South Dakota...and much of western North Dakota.

    Concerning...Blizzard=20

    Valid 121348Z - 121745Z

    SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions are beginning across portions of
    western North Dakota, far northwest South Dakota, and far eastern
    Montana.

    DISCUSSION...Moderate to heavy snow has begun across a broad swath
    of the northern Plains. Winds are already strong (sustained 25 knots
    with gusts 35 to 40 knots) and are expected to strengthen through
    the afternoon. Blizzard conditions have already been reported at
    KHEI and KBHK this morning. Widespread blizzard conditions are
    expected across much of western North Dakota, far eastern Montana,
    and far northwest South Dakota later this morning and this
    afternoon.=20

    Snowfall rates up to 2 to 3 inches per hour are expected late this
    morning and into early afternoon across central North Dakota with
    these conditions expected to persist for several hours before
    lifting into northern North Dakota. Moderate snow will remain in its
    wake with snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour persisting well
    beyond this afternoon. Some locations are forecast to receive over 2
    feet of snow with persistent blizzard to near blizzard strength
    winds and visibilities expected for the next 24 to 48 hours. This is
    expected to cause extreme impacts across the region.

    ..Bentley.. 04/12/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rDgQQnKvpi53iNY6f_HISV6th83KCz13PYW5mzviCx-kh6SdmcIuY24IXwb4vckOnX9H_7zT$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 46110471 47090440 47710363 48360263 48470059 48179998
    47319973 46400040 45760233 45560373 45550444 45690482
    46110471=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, April 04, 2023 13:01:02
    ACUS11 KWNS 041300
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041300=20
    WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-041530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0453
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0800 AM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

    Areas affected...eastern IA...northwest IL...southern WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 041300Z - 041530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for isolated large hail may continue and
    increase through the mid-late morning. A severe thunderstorm watch
    is possible and largely dependent on evolving convective trends.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a couple of vigorous thunderstorms
    developing north of a surface warm front over southeast IA as of 8am
    CDT. The 12 UTC Davenport, IA raob indicated the storms are likely
    rooted near 850mb with increasing moisture surging northward this
    morning above a cool/stable layer near the surface, to the north of
    the warm front. Around 900 J/kg MUCAPE was observed on the
    Davenport, IA raob with around 40-kt effective shear. 700-500mb
    lapse rates will continue to steepen during the morning (reference
    upstream raobs at Omaha/Topeka). As a result, increasing elevated
    instability and deep-layer shear will at least support a conditional
    risk for strong to severe thunderstorms across eastern IA and
    eventually moving into adjacent parts of southern WI/northern IL.=20 Uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage, and in turn, the
    potential severe threat. Convective trends will be monitored for a
    possible severe thunderstorm watch this morning.

    ..Smith/Edwards.. 04/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!__tnVusXhj4eQIVAgNLaKg8nMLlWoVjkBdlZFHce9gys3o6ageUOESJRXq02lX394v3F1XEVW= TkzXJSXrzVxOb7haVs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

    LAT...LON 41759226 42729148 43148964 42998821 42538789 42238845
    41059134 41149198 41759226=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, April 16, 2024 06:43:20
    ACUS11 KWNS 160643
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160642=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-160745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0453
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0142 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

    Areas affected...South-central/southeast NE and
    north-central/northeast KS

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 113...

    Valid 160642Z - 160745Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 113 continues.

    SUMMARY...Cluster of severe storms across north-central KS into
    south-central NE should be maintained east-northeast through the
    pre-dawn hours. A downstream/replacement of WW 113 will likely occur
    prior to its scheduled expiration at 08Z.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has consolidated into a small linear
    cluster, mainly across north-central KS. Thus far, measured severe
    gusts to 60 mph and hail to 1.25 inches have been reported. Given
    the increasing linear character, it is plausible that a swath of
    severe wind mixed with hail will persist east-northeast into parts
    of northeast KS and southeast NE during the next few hours. Despite
    downstream surface dew points largely holding in the low 60s, MLCIN
    is weak. With 40-50 kt 0-1 km shear, low-level mesovortices are
    possible as well.

    ..Grams/Gleason.. 04/16/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6cicy256oskUspOjGbZVBg46AVWAkX2YdP8vK_SPwrcp6sTmrWmZ4wlTiIsKgTNiRvf0h6pF1= Wyk7cqeMCZ0Xl9DCL4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 40729963 41309914 41459850 41319744 40869675 40559642
    40099613 39359641 39119705 38999884 40159906 40729963=20


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