This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1649720849-64488-8228
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

ACUS11 KWNS 112347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112346=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-120115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0450
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Areas affected...parts of western Arkansas...southeastern Oklahoma
and northeast Texas.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108...

Valid 112346Z - 120115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across WW108. Supercells capable
of all hazards will continue east-northeast into WW107.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and surface analysis showed several
supercells ongoing across southeastern Oklahoma in the vicinity of a
subtle warm front lifting through the ArkLaTex. Ahead of these
storms the airmass remain warm, moist, and unstable with low to mid
60s F dewpoints and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Regional VWPs show
40-50 kt of effective shear which will continue to support updraft organization/rotation as these storms move east-northeastward. In
addition to the favorable mid-level shear, VWPs show increasingly
large low-level hodographs with eastward extent. Given the favorable
mode and the expected increase in 0-1km ESRH with the developing
nocturnal low-level jet, low-level mesocyclone strengthen and the
subsequent tornado threat may increase as storms move out of WW108
into WW107. Otherwise, these supercells remain capable of producing
large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Latest radar and visible imagery also show several attempts at
discrete warm sector Ci across far southeastern OK and western AR.
Likely driven by subtle confluence near the aforementioned lifting
warm front, any supercells able to become established within the
free warm sector would likely pose a risk for tornadoes this evening
given STP values of 3-4 from the latest SPC mesoanalysis.

..Lyons.. 04/11/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oan1rKSzG0zs4ghQ2lEVrcdJ-vljZXGJtDwV-ypM466Ak_hFHsIXQRNGxxQHPfSVvzoc29oZ$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 35029565 35259428 35209360 34869322 34429300 34029306
33639334 33639389 33759501 33819575 33929618 34129659
34459660 34809611 35029565=20



------------=_1649720849-64488-8228
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
MIME-Version: 1.0

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1649720849-64488-8228--

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 032221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032221=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-040015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0450
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Mon Apr 03 2023

Areas affected...Northeast MS...Central/Southern AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 032221Z - 040015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
damaging gusts are possible for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a warm front from
northern MS southeastward into southeast AL and and the western FL
Panhandle. Air mass in the vicinity of this boundary is
characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s, dewpoints in
the mid/upper 60s, and moderate buoyancy. Latest mesoanalysis
estimated MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Large-scale forcing is weak,
but convergence along and in the vicinity of this boundary has
initiated thunderstorms over central AL. Additional storm
development is possible farther north across northeast MS, but the
highest coverage of storms is expected to remain over central AL.

Given the moderate buoyancy and effective bulk shear on the order of
50 kt, storms may be able to mature into a supercell or two.
Low-level flow is weak, mitigating the tornado threat, but the
presence of the warm front and potential for rotating updrafts still
suggests a non-zero risk. Primary risk with these storms is isolated
large hail, with isolated damaging gusts possible as well. Overall
storm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered,
with storm intensity expected to diminish after sunset.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 04/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9ty8bfZyhjTlvGmX7IG2wR9LAA58MQ2VyEKZPDJfwmET5jUNitEdz3HwVPmDHZCH_7wUfsDuh= q725VbyMTkJoOm9qro$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 33728967 34018899 33428723 32258594 31518551 31148604
31528700 32318777 32928874 33318937 33728967=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 160208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160207=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-160430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0450
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Areas affected...eastern Nebraska amd adjacent portions of the
Missouri Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 160207Z - 160430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in generally weak thunderstorm activity is
ongoing. While there is some uncertainty, the risk for severe
weather still appears limited until late tonight.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of a significant mid-level trough emerging
from the Southwest, a developing area of mid-level warm advection is
becoming focused across the northeastern Kansas/eastern Nebraska
vicinity of the middle Missouri Valley. Based on radar, and the
16/00Z sounding from Topeka, associated lift and moistening are
contributing to destabilization supportive of an ongoing increase in
convective development, which is rooted above the inversion
associated with a prominent elevated mixed-layer.

Below the capping inversion, boundary-layer moistening, within a
corridor to the west of the Missouri River, has contributed to
mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. And, in the presence of=20
sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and strong deep-layer
shear, the environment has become conditionally favorable for
boundary-layer based supercells. However, until the leading edge of
mid-level cooling approaching from the southwest begins to
overspread the region later tonight, the boundary-layer instability
and stronger convective potential may remain unrealized.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/16/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-9jDCXhdmrpp9-D3MfyGkMpNNbhrLM159Z3iMJMJBSUBjKKQKh1LJrWygVJtVyQ9ji6PMo2s_= Dpy47dzmPPe2n85X0w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 41929840 41409626 39859488 39369553 40009737 40399786
41679892 41929840=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)