• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0446

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, April 11, 2022 17:54:55
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111754
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111754=20
    TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-111930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0446
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1254 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

    Areas affected...northeastern Arkansas into the western Tennessee
    vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 111754Z - 111930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A cluster of organized -- but elevated -- storms moving
    toward the middle Mississippi Valley of northeastern
    Arkansas/western Tennessee may produce small hail and gusty winds,
    but will likely not require WW issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a fairly well-organized band of
    storms moving across northeastern Arkansas toward western Tennessee.
    Despite the linear organization indicated by radar, convection
    remains elevated atop a surface-based layer that remains weakly
    stable up to about 1.5km. As such, convection has remained
    sub-severe, and expect while gusty winds and small hail will be
    possible, any severe potential should remain low as storms advance eastward/east-southeastward affecting areas near and north of
    Memphis over the next hour or so.

    ..Goss/Thompson.. 04/11/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rc7bPC_mVJ57kG1DKChJ0le2V0dHkYWseT68_wFI6qO50i5ZEjcwy5X1ce3TmN-60vrNPtSC$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 35429109 35929033 36338946 36148842 35538836 34788979
    34989090 35429109=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, April 03, 2023 14:29:24
    ACUS11 KWNS 031429
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031428=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-031630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0446
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0928 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2023

    Areas affected...southeast AL into southwest GA and portions of the
    FL Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 031428Z - 031630Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe potential may continue downstream from WW 112 into
    the afternoon hours. Eastern extent of risk is uncertain and area is
    being monitored for possible watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...An ongoing convective complex across southern AL is
    occurring near/north of a warm front extending east/southeast into
    southwest GA and northwest FL. The western edge of this area of
    convection is likely on or just south of the warm front and poses a
    greater short term risk of damaging gusts.

    Downstream for WW 112, greater boundary-layer moisture is noted
    across southeast AL and portions of the FL Panhandle where dewpoints
    are in the mid/upper 60s to near 70 F. With eastward extent and
    north of the warm front, dewpoints are generally in the 50s across
    southern GA. However, dewpoints are increasing as the front lifts
    north, and dewpoints have increased 2-4 degrees over the last hour
    or two into far southwest GA, with a 65 F dewpoint now indicated at
    BGE. The current concern is that deeper boundary-layer moisture may
    not return northward quickly enough further east into
    south-central/southeast GA, and the ongoing MCS could outpace
    greater surface-based instability. This lends to some uncertainty in
    eastward extent of continued severe potential.

    However, cells along the western extent of ongoing convection may
    continue to shift more southeasterly along the low-level theta-e
    gradient and pose a continued risk of damaging gusts and possibly a
    tornado within WW 112. With east/southeast extent, enlarged and favorably-curved low-level hodographs along the frontal zone
    indicate some tornado potential also may persist in addition to wind
    damage across a small portions of SE AL and far southwest GA. While
    shear will be weakening through the afternoon, it should still be
    sufficient to support organized convection. A narrow downstream
    watch may be needed for southeast AL into far southwest GA, but
    eastern extent of the threat remains uncertain.

    ..Leitman/Gleason.. 04/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_xG0C2QWc-CIHjAIitpkUaR6LIPV406lTQlbF2Vf3QO1J3PtUeWG4OAmF5I3HUmrCNybuiMs_= WP1rx9WVytXz9ia4zU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 31678642 31558470 31328358 30928328 30478350 30328408
    30348468 30498560 30668617 30898647 31678642=20


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