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ACUS11 KWNS 110628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110628=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-110800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Areas affected...southwest into east-central MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106...

Valid 110628Z - 110800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage
will likely be the primary severe hazard over the southwest MO
vicinity through 3am. Marginally severe hail (around 1 inch in
diameter) is possible with the strongest quasi-discrete storms
farther northeast in central MO.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic over the past 1-2 hours over northeast OK
into southwest MO has shown upscale growth of a southwest-northeast
cluster of storms on a front. An Oklahoma Mesonet observation at
Nowata recorded a 63 mph gust at 1225am. The airmass along and
immediately east of the thunderstorm band is characterized as
marginally unstable. The 8.6 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate
observed on the 00z Springfield, MO raob in the presence of strong southwesterly low to mid-level flow, will support a risk for
isolated severe storms to continue for the next few hours.

Farther northeast over central MO, slightly drier low levels are
present (low 50s surface dewpoints). However, a quasi-discrete
storm mode at least offers some intermittent hail potential with the
stronger updrafts. This activity may eventually approach the
western suburbs of Saint Louis over the next 1-2 hours.

..Smith.. 04/11/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sRHfLBS9_p6T7BcNCNtuEA11APQYssTcK0OQMsNSVSnxWH4nqV2I39vryjuqsEhMVXklZhRb$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 36729475 37429334 38009268 38769145 38769076 38429075
37619236 36389388 36229446 36389488 36729475=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 030603
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030603=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-030800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2023

Areas affected...parts of southern and eastern Louisiana...southern Mississippi...and far southwestern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 030603Z - 030800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe risk is forecast to gradually increase overnight
across parts of Louisiana and into southern Mississippi, and
eventually into far southwestern Alabama. A couple of tornadoes,
along with locally damaging wind gusts and hail, will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows band of slightly elevated
storms moving across northern Louisiana at this time, near and just
to the north of a surface warm front extending eastward across
northern Louisiana and into southern Mississippi. While a locally
stronger gust or two will remain possible with this convective band,
severe threat should remain limited, due to the elevated nature of
the convection.

Just to the south/southeast however, a very moist gulf airmass is in
place south of the aforementioned warm front, where dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s are observed. In conjunction with 30 to 40 kt
low-level southwesterlies providing warm/moist advection across
southern Louisiana, warm-advection-type showers continue to develop
and spread north-northeastward. These showers have gradually deepened/strengthened, which is consistent with CAM guidance which
continues to show eventual supercell development across this region.
A few of the stronger showers have shown very weak rotation, and
updraft splits, despite the lack of lightning thus far. As the
convection continues to increase, and based on this behavior and the background/supporting environment, risk for a couple of tornadoes --
along with locally damaging wind gusts and marginal hail -- seems
likely to evolve. Such an evolution over the next 1 to 2 hours
would require consideration for WW issuance.

..Goss/Grams.. 04/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5NBwZNxtMfgyD_qL7BclajRXD9oSq_nnNvu0d7zltMat_-53kGD4y2SJrFgPdsU131hgaH-jf= oV5fo5hmW6ggu5F8q8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30329301 31829186 31439061 31408935 31088789 30578750
29828881 29769013 29919245 30329301=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 152041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152040=20
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-152215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Areas affected...portions of WV...VA...MD and DE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 109...

Valid 152040Z - 152215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 109
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe hail and damaging wind risk will continue into
the evening across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 109.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have mainly posed a large hail
risk through the afternoon across portions of West Virginia through
northern Virginia as activity has remained more cellular. As
convection continues to track southeast and additional storms
develop, an increasing risk for damaging winds is possible across
parts of of southeast VA toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Some
clustering via storm interactions is evident in convection from
Culpeper County VA toward Charles County MD, and this may be the
beginnings of increased damaging wind potential with south and east
extent. This area is within a corridor of very steep low-level lapse
rates and strong DCAPE, supporting damaging wind potential.
Otherwise, expected convection to continue developing southeastward,
with an accompany severe risk, through early evening.

..Leitman.. 04/15/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9_xpuFYHw45EtBIk6Bs8FEh1bDik3x_C8rXVSpDkf5lZUMIExooAWl-LV-PguhYmChYXAkf6P= pMiLzFNad_HTysG0hE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 38867697 38807529 38507505 37877521 36937570 36687612
36627758 36698038 37118127 39108143 38787716 38867697=20


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