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ACUS11 KWNS 110117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110116=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-110345-
Mesoscale Discussion 0441
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022
Areas affected...Parts of northern Oklahoma and adjacent southern
Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 110116Z - 110345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely to initiate within the next few
hours, before increasing in coverage through 11 pm-Midnight, with
stronger activity posing a risk for severe hail and locally strong
surface gusts.
DISCUSSION...Trailing one substantive short wave trough progressing
northeast of the middle Missouri Valley vicinity, another lower
amplitude perturbation is currently crossing the Colorado/New Mexico
Rockies and likely to continue into south central portions of the
Great Plains this evening. Downstream of the trailing feature,
forcing for ascent aided by mid-level warm advection has contributed
to high-based convective development spreading east-northeast of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, where lower/mid tropopsheric
lapse rates have become rather steep due to insolation and very deep boundary-layer mixing.
Due to the dry boundary-layer across the higher plains, convection
has been initially based near the 500 mb level, based to the 00Z
Amarillo sounding. However, latest Rapid Refresh forecast soundings
continue to indicate that moistening in the 850-700 mb layer is
underway across central into western/northern Oklahoma, above a weak slowing/stalling surface front, roughly east of Bartlesville into
areas northwest of Oklahoma City. Coupled with the moisture
advection, it appears that the large-scale ascent may lead to
saturation and the initiation of thunderstorm development across
north central Oklahoma as early as 02-03Z, before increasing in
coverage and continuing to spread east-northeastward.
Beneath 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly mid/upper flow, shear within
the cloud-bearing layer is strong, with the thermodynamic profiles
(including cold mid-levels) supportive of supercells posing a risk
for severe hail. Given the dry post-frontal (but not particularly
cool) sub-cloud air, locally strong wind gusts may also gradually
develop through late evening.
..Kerr/Hart.. 04/11/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oONbqk_LILsSVoOnc1kQJwgsit-e_sQlJR9UKyMXVvmc384pwvd5Ka0CShDx0SJs3qHSbZMe$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36779771 37119611 37229496 36239510 35609754 35589842
36479851 36779771=20
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