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ACUS11 KWNS 072253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072253=20
NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-080030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CST Mon Mar 07 2022

Areas affected...portions of eastern New York...eastern
Pennsylvania...New Jersey...Delaware...western
Massachusetts...western Connecticut

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 072253Z - 080030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A squall line is approaching portions of the Hudson
Valley. The line is expected to maintain intensity while moving
across southern New England/Upper Mid-Atlantic, with damaging gusts
the main threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely in
the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts a narrow, low-topped
squall line moving across central portions of NY/PA, where wind
damage and gusts around 50 mph have already been observed. A 120+ kt
500 mb jet is grazing the Hudson Valley while also overspreading a
50+ kt 850 mb flow field, contributing to strong deep-layer and
low-level shear. Given the approach of the upper trough and strong
convergence along the cold front/surface trough axis, strong ascent
(along with the aforementioned shear) should mechanically maintain
the low-topped convective line across the Hudson Valley. In
addition, surface temperatures across eastern PA into central and
southern NJ remain in the 70s F, with 22Z mesoanalysis depicting
0-3km lapse rates in the 6-7 C/km range. As such, an uptick in
intensity with the ongoing squall is likely as convection progresses
east of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #37, and a new Severe Thunderstorm
Watch will be needed soon.

..Squitieri/Kerr.. 03/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sqFM3JmCydiHAZCWIwpinDf6vA6IGIcw7QSQQafXplLjOPG_mL8iFsR34aNTkdJ129ezPvoT$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 38437551 40477596 41707619 42617610 42847549 42777398
42687332 42417293 41917268 41137288 40257379 39547412
38447505 38437551=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 020422
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020421=20
TXZ000-020615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2023

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 020421Z - 020615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms -- capable of producing very large
hail -- will be possible over the next few hours across parts of
South Texas. The very isolated nature of the expected convection
may preclude the need for WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that a large/lone supercell has
developed over Zavala County in South Texas, and is moving into
southwestern Frio County at this time. The storm is occurring
within a moderately unstable environment, where weak low-level flow
but strong southwesterlies aloft are providing sufficient shear for
this storm to acquire updraft rotation. Latest MRMS MESH continues
to show very large hail with this storm, as it moves eastward.=20
Though any more than very isolated/additional development appears
unlikely, any storm across this area will be capable of producing
very large/destructive hail, and possibly locally damaging wind
gusts.

..Goss/Guyer.. 03/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6VjxhWPjsLsXzQvytjqbAvcAOYgTfJ_SCSfvrBtZdOQVFvFxAPT9yGcNFCYwZJp88SYSINnSy= qoAuEsHiPz3TzE07Yo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28669945 29019951 29989858 30389778 30009685 29249691
28639822 28669945=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 140045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140044=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-140245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Areas affected...east-central Missouri into far western Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 35...

Valid 140044Z - 140245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 35
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind risk continues in WW35.

DISCUSSION...Recent storm activity across the south side of the St.
Louis metro this evening has produced instances of large hail up to
1.75 in. Additional storm development is occurring near the surface
warm font. Surface objective analysis continues to indicate around
1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE overlapping 40-45 kts of deep layer shear
and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will continue to
support potential for elevated supercells capable of large hail and
damaging wind through the next few hours this evening.

..Thornton/Hart.. 03/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8bgUYhDoWfvsS36OrCRBqhjgtub42EZv6xV1F_LquMBAnwmDTcTXmD4rv4BD3jjjFhFBzHR15= mpjDRiArJKc5WnYV6w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 38899260 39219219 39339184 39389128 39319039 39149007
38848972 38648960 38278950 38078967 38129055 38229150
38279212 38469255 38639264 38899260=20


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