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ACUS11 KWNS 072050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072050=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-072245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Thu Apr 07 2022

Areas affected...southeast Virginia...northeast North Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 104...

Valid 072050Z - 072245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue moving east/northeast
across the Tornado Watch area through early evening. A couple
tornadoes will be possible in addition to large hail and damaging
winds.

DISCUSSION...Supercell storms were located over Franklin and Johnson
Counties in NC at 2045z, with radar indications of large hail and a
recent report of wind damage. These storms will move east-northeast
across the Tornado Watch area over the next few hours within a
moderately unstable and strongly sheared environment supportive of a
continued severe hail and damaging wind threat. These storms will
also remain within a zone of enhanced low-level SRH east of a
surface low and will have some potential for low-level rotation and
potentially a tornado or two while moving across northeast NC and
southeast VA.

Other strong storms over south-central VA between Petersburg and
Emporia were also located within a favorable environment for
intensification during the next few hours and may also develop
supercell characteristics.

..Bunting.. 04/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oo3VNlelKe1rrRP1XejD4lRKvc5-tgLRSRPzfcj4gh_238djuhAlqlyjdlcgaVZYzCi8EX9j$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON 35217711 35637817 36227803 37107754 37397734 37557667
37687620 37707574 37647565 37207560 36557566 35937539
35427558 35217711=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 022211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022211=20
TXZ000-030015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023

Areas affected...North/Central TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 110...

Valid 022211Z - 030015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 110 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for supercells capable of all severe hazards,
including very large hail and tornadoes, will continue for at least
the next few hours across central TX.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 60 miles north-northeast of ABI, with a dryline extending south from this low
to near BWD and then back southwestward through the Edwards Plateau.
A few storms have initiated along this boundary over the Low Rolling
Plains, where surface temperatures are in the upper 70s/low 80s amid
dewpoints in the mid 60s. Mid-level lapse rates remain steep (i.e. 7
to 7.5 degrees C per km), which, when combined with the relatively
warm and moist low-levels, is supporting moderate instability.
Recent mesoanalysis estimates 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE.=20

Additionally, surface winds throughout the warm sector are southerly
at 10 to 15 kt, veering to more southwesterly at 40 kt by 1 km. This
shear is sampled well by recent VAD profiles at FWS and GRK, which
place the 0-1 SRH around 200 m2/s2. These conditions suggest the
ongoing storms should continue, with the overall environment
remaining supportive of supercells for at least the next few hours.
All severe hazards will remain possible, including very large hail
and tornadoes.

..Mosier.. 04/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ZjjSE02IgJM2kzbklGCqTaKiu7k_8d5Qm9hdHjbftaT4CUPQ-BCDM0Gh8BWn9mHRltzbypoq= H5phLf_WZ-6qbshHHg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 32919924 33339897 33409856 33339789 32859693 32409618
32029554 31629553 31079590 30759683 30869764 31119823
31659885 32119905 32919924=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 151501
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151501=20
MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-151630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern West Virginia...northern
Virginia and western Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 151501Z - 151630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated showers and thunderstorms may produce gusty winds
or small hail the next couple of hours across parts of the West
Virginia, Maryland and Virginia border vicinity.

DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms have developed late this
morning ahead of a stationary boundary near the WV/MD/VA border.
This activity is likely somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, weak
instability (generally less than 500 J/kg MUCAPE) amid steep
midlevel lapse rates and modest effective shear could support
sporadic small hail. A dry, mixed boundary-layer and light low-level
flow also may foster gusty winds around 40-50 mph. This initial
thunderstorm activity is expected to remain isolated and the overall
severe threat limited over the next couple of hours, and a watch is
not expected. The severe threat will increase across portions of
Mid-Atlantic later this afternoon, and this later threat will be
addressed with additional MCDs in the coming hours.

..Leitman/Smith.. 04/15/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_FS8AF_DrnXw6yLkSbpkkt9n35G46Qd1QxNAPGlreV0J5vz14aw4TXt2ZAJGcDQKcCGjWsXz8= mPdCP48Yqh_TdYa4ro$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 39737960 39597725 39007670 38677719 38727842 38957953
39207981 39737960=20


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