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ACUS11 KWNS 071813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071813=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-071915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0437
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CDT Thu Apr 07 2022

Areas affected...southeast Virginia...eastern North
Carolina...extreme northeast South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 071813Z - 071915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in
the 4 pm to 5 pm EDT time frame and move east/northeast towards the
coastal waters through evening. The risk for a couple tornadoes,
large hail and damaging winds will exist, and a Tornado Watch will
likely be issued prior to 4 pm EDT.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface mesoanalysis showed a surface low over south-central VA, with a warm front extending east to the lower
Chesapeake Bay/southern Delmarva peninsula and a cold front
extending south to the eastern FL Panhandle. Gradual diurnal
heating and northward moisture advection is occurring over eastern
NC and southeast VA, where MLCAPE of 1000 - 2000 J/kg will likely
exist by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will strengthen to around
50 kts, resulting in forecast soundings with elongated hodographs
and some low-level curvature.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop after 20z
near the surface low and cold front, with storms moving
east/northeast towards the coast through early evening. A mixed
storm mode including supercell structures and bowing segments
appears probable with a risk for all severe hazards. Sustained
supercells east of the surface low and in the vicinity of the warm
front will have some tornado potential where low-level SRH will be
locally enhanced. This appears most likely across northeast NC and
southeast VA including the Hampton Roads area and lower portion of
the Eastern Shore.

Observational trends will continue to be monitored, and one or more
watches will likely be issued prior to 20z/4 pm EDT.

..Bunting/Grams.. 04/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u9Qd4cmbibLlIPDMibpw-dKtAEY1mu5oMNAv-t3BChN0yYk1Tb464W9yKnckP9s0l_Yip-1h$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 37217531 35567523 34957558 34377663 33787772 33397858
33777926 35127909 36577795 37647710 37887672 37757562
37217531=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 021822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021822=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-022015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0437
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the Texas Hill Country...into North
Texas and far southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 021822Z - 022015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells with a risk for all hazards may develop as
early as mid afternoon across portions of central and North TX, into
southern OK. A Tornado Watch will be issued soon to cover the
threat.

DISCUSSION...Across the southern Plains, afternoon WV imagery showed
a well-developed, compact vort max transiting across far west TX and
eastern NM. Ahead of the vort max, rapid low-level surface moisture
return was evident across central and north TX with dewpoints
surging from the low to mid 50s to mid 60s F over the last 1-2
hours. With rapid moistening and partial cloud breaks ongoing,
continued destabilization (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected
through the afternoon. Very steep mid-level lapse rates (8.5-9 C/km)
from the 12z RAOBS will support rapid and robust updraft
development, potentially as early as 19-20z. Strong vertical shear
ahead of the vort max ( 45-60 kt 0-6km shear) will allow for storm
organization with a predominately supercellular mode.

A somewhat complex convective scenario may evolve this afternoon
with multiple areas of near simultaneous initiation possible. Cells
may initiate within the modifying warm sector near and to the
west/northwest of the Metroplex and far southwest OK. At the same
time, the dryline in west-central TX will likely initiate a few
supercells as it mixes eastward. Hodographs, while curved in the
lowest 1-2 km, are extended and mostly straight line aloft. This,
along with the favorable buoyancy and lapse rates strongly suggests
large and wind-driven damaging hail will be likely with any
sustained storms. A tornado risk (some significant) may also evolve
given the potential for discrete cells and 0-1km SRH of 150-200
m2/s2. A locally greater tornado risk may also evolve farther east
where low-level shear is expected to increase later this evening.
Given the potential for several supercells within a rapidly
modifying and favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment, a
Tornado Watch will likely be issued this afternoon.

..Lyons/Hart.. 04/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4nPul76eJ43XMBGK2wfHEa38x8LI1d9kkszjjpjLGffS6dcWJ5GBoy8aLaWcepXUl_0l7aqBZ= WrA5XD6TEhX2feuczE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 33030010 33770008 34010006 34329990 34589928 34679845
34629774 34409654 33969592 33749574 33449560 32849565
32319598 31719660 31189733 30939798 30619882 30399959
30650047 31410037 31910026 33030010=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 150135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150134=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-150300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0437
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0834 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Areas affected...Part of eastern OH...western/central PA...northern
WV Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108...

Valid 150134Z - 150300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and damaging wind continues,
but should gradually diminish with time later tonight.

DISCUSSION...A persistent storm cluster continues to backbuild
across far eastern OH into western PA this evening, aided by a feed
of modest low-level moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (as
noted on regional 00Z soundings). Deep-layer flow/shear remains
sufficient for organized convection, and a couple of transient
supercells have been noted this evening within the broader storm
cluster. Large hail will continue to be a threat with the stronger
cells near the western edge of the storm cluster, where a somewhat
more discrete mode can be maintained. Rather strong low-level flow
within a remnant well-mixed boundary layer will also continue to
support a threat of isolated damaging gusts.=20

With time, nocturnal cooling/stabilization will result in storms
becoming increasingly elevated, with continued convection tending to
deplete remaining MUCAPE (as has already occurred farther east).
However, in the short term, some severe threat will spread
southeastward in conjunction with the primary outflow boundary.
Continued redevelopment of convection is also possible into
northeast OH, where steep midlevel lapse rates could support an
isolated hail threat into late evening.

..Dean.. 04/15/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7766eCskxxOPTgt6timJQB5KsmYm_OUKPilXf6JUURxqdbaSnC9YjHbRGc0kqYXS9IZqG0Qw2= KWLM9yubH19SMNI4XQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 40288172 40488206 40828236 41138228 41168222 41258177
41268071 41207770 41117753 40767724 40357743 40177818
40087948 40158143 40288172=20


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