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ACUS11 KWNS 070041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070041=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-070245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0434
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022

Areas affected...Central Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 101...

Valid 070041Z - 070245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 101
continues.

SUMMARY...Despite the onset of diurnal cooling, the potential for
isolated severe hail and damaging winds will continue for at least
the next 1-2 hours as storms continue to develop along the cold
front.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing along the cold front in AL
continue to show periods of re-invigoration in IR imagery and
lightning trends. This may be attributable to improving ascent
associated with the approach of a mid-level trough/cold front that
is noted in water-vapor imagery and 700 mb analyses. This should
continue to promote sufficiently deep lift along the front to
support continued convection. However, surface observations within
the warm sector ahead of the front show the early onset of diurnal
cooling. Latest RAP analyses reflect this trend with a gradual
decrease in MLCAPE and increase in inhibition. Lift along the
frontal boundary will likely remain deep enough to counteract
degrading buoyancy rooted near the surface, but this trend will
gradually diminish the severe potential heading into the late
evening hours and instability wanes. In the near term, however,
periodic storm intensification to severe limits remains possible,
maintaining the hail/damaging wind risk through at least 02 UTC.

..Moore.. 04/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o_kaDbS6ztsO80_46ANl2e42qH3IEVaQoA1xFWA_irkeMaPAqPrL4LQEWSRm2H3pZPdvt6NB$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 32168866 32598806 33238701 33778627 34028558 33868521
33348515 32648532 32188583 32048639 32008706 31968797
31928843 31978870 32168866=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 012218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012218=20
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-012315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0434
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Connecticut...Massachusetts...Rhode
Island...and southern New Hampshire

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 012218Z - 012315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Localized damaging wind threat may persist. A downstream
Severe Thunderstorm Watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms currently moving across New York and
Pennsylvania has shown signs of weakening over the last hour. These
storms are moving into a more favorable environment across the East
Coast, where daytime heating has allowed for SBCAPE around 500 J/kg.
Mid-level cooling will continue to allow further destabilization
over the next couple of hours as the trough approaches from the
west. VAD profiles from Albany (KENX) show deep layer shear around
25-30 kts. As storms move into this environment slight
intensification will be possible, along with additional development
ahead of the main line. Given the wind profiles, a marginal damaging
wind risk is possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is unlikely.

..Thornton/Hart.. 04/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4FrmfNM-7-e-veCbwGhRdwJcF9ZcbD25Auqn1s237wiaiRs5OVy3xZXHmy9uEb3Yx7UJz3ywB= mzhaybUfvZ_yoCyGvY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 42717279 42947243 42987192 42917133 42727073 41987062
41567084 41137112 41067192 41147210 41277217 41377253
41647275 42087286 42717279=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 132025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132025=20
ORZ000-CAZ000-132300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0434
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Areas affected...portions of extreme northern California into
central Oregon

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 132025Z - 132300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in both
coverage and intensity through the afternoon. Hail and strong wind
gusts will be the main threats, though a brief tornado cannot be
completely ruled out. The severe threat should remain isolated and a
WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Despite limited surface heating, increasing deep-layer
ascent, driven by the approach of a mid-level jet streak, is
contributing to a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage across
parts of southern OR/northern CA. Temperatures are warming into the
mid 50s F, with dewpoints near 40 F in place, supporting around 1000
J/kg SBCAPE, but under 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Given widespread clouds
in place, the boundary layer remains moist, but also cool, with the aforementioned CAPE constrained to short and narrow profiles (per
19Z RAP forecast soundings) despite steep tropospheric lapse rates
in place. Shear profiles favor some severe potential, with forecast
soundings showing curved and elongated hodographs, with up to 50 kts
of effective bulk shear in place. As such, multicells and supercells
should be the primary mode of convection, with gusty winds and hail
the main threats.=20

A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, especially to the
immediate lee of the southern Cascades, where 20Z mesoanalysis
depicts a local maxima in low-level vertical vorticity coinciding
with over 100 J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE. Any supercell that manages to
develop and traverse this local corridor may stretch the vorticity
and spawn a brief landspout/supercell hybrid tornado, though this
scenario remains highly conditional. Furthermore, the overall severe
threat is expected to remain isolated and a WW issuance is not
anticipated.

..Squitieri/Leitman.. 04/13/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8RFpkE_aDjjYk2KmbwddrlaiExQBtfCoyuORfBhNcT6qu4ug5xf3B3eOv0v5smH_EzA0BxB66= nR0NNxcejeAgiGa1hk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...PQR...

LAT...LON 41392088 41442137 41572172 41962219 42292234 43162272
43782296 44272288 44682207 44752089 44592016 44331969
44191956 43271975 42671993 42022009 41532055 41392088=20


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