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ACUS11 KWNS 070034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070034=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-070230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022

Areas affected...Southeast GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 102...

Valid 070034Z - 070230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 102 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind/hail will spread across the southern half of
ww102 over the next 1-3 hr.

DISCUSSION...MCS that developed over central GA has matured and is
now moving southeast toward ww102. Leading edge of this complex is
surging southeast in excess of 50kt. Given the forward speed of the
bowing squall line it should approach the GA Atlantic coast around
03z. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats with this
complex, though an embedded QLCS tornado can not be ruled out.

..Darrow.. 04/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oAc3genhWY4Dab4N3Z3h8uXbX3kqhGBcWtTaxa5O56FdBHT7CjD6ZHf25MK6bgIG5YPKITbQ$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON 32958190 32508032 30838131 31828261 32958190=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 012132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012131=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-012300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023

Areas affected...Southeast GA and north FL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106...

Valid 012131Z - 012300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated wind damage and marginally severe
hail will slowly diminish by 00z, and severe thunderstorm watch 106
can be canceled or allowed to expire.

DISCUSSION...A broken band of strong to occasionally severe storms
continues to move southeastward along a diffuse pre-frontal
trough/outflow from southeast GA into the FL Panhandle. Local VWPs
show primarily westerly flow increasing with height, with weak
low-level flow and straight hodographs near and in advance of these
storms. As diurnal temperatures peak and surface cooling begins
over the next few hours, buoyancy should start to slowly diminish.=20
At the same time, forcing for ascent is already weak and will also
begin to diminish as this area is brushed by the southern fringes of
the lower Great Lakes/Appalachians midlevel trough. Thus, storm
intensity is expected to decrease this evening, and the watch can be
canceled by 23z, or allowed to expire at 00z.

..Thompson.. 04/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5EXO2-KWTb5QBQ1fXd7I33I7V9w4lRjmpNbh6dfqEvfe-JFl8j3MtzJeby4jdBoF372G3HmSY= SN4HrC4KzFnBmnjWvM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 30678178 30598315 30518425 30438511 30608517 31168279
31158194 31378135 31298102 30788126 30678178=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 130036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130036=20
IDZ000-ORZ000-130230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Areas affected...parts of northeastern Oregon into north central
Idaha

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 130036Z - 130230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A small cluster of thunderstorms may continue to evolve
and organize near and east-northeast of the Baker OR vicinity, with
increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts while
spreading toward the Bitterroot and Salmon River Mountains vicinity
through 7-9 PM MDT.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has recently intensified in a
narrow line near/south of the Blue Mountains vicinity of
northeastern Oregon. This appears aided by a focused area of
large-scale ascent supported by low-level warm advection, beneath a
difluent and divergent upper flow regime. As a high-level jet
streak continues to propagate eastward to the north of the western Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, this forcing is forecast to generally
shift east-northeastward into parts of the Salmon River Mountains
and Bitterroot Range of north central Idaho.

Although peak late afternoon instability appears characterized by
relatively modest CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, strong deep layer
shear (50+ kt) may contribute further intensification of convection
during the next few hours. The evolution of a small, but
increasingly organized cluster of storms appears possible, which may
gradually be accompanied by strengthening rear inflow and perhaps
increasing potential for strong to severe gusts to reach the
surface, aided by relatively dry sub-cloud air with modestly steep
lapse rates.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/13/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Yu9LF3rUihAk0Oob3M_fC3TR3bYGm1sW52bx0xNvF3v76xdAcf6XJhCWWN6vxAEyepcBMm8y= lS8YhduC74bdj_PBYY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...PDT...

LAT...LON 44841815 46031625 46041454 45081549 44021738 43971789
44521796 44841815=20


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