This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1649287770-21664-5642
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

ACUS11 KWNS 062329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062328=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-070130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0432
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022

Areas affected...Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 100...

Valid 062328Z - 070130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will gradually shift southeast across ww100
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Over the last several hours numerous
showers/thunderstorms have evolved into a large complex over GA with
an expanding precipitation shield. This evolving MCS appears to be
showing signs of increased forward propagation along the
southwestern flank from Twiggs-Macon County. Additionally, two
stronger supercell-like updrafts have developed along this surge
which may contribute to forward speed. Hail remains possible with
the stronger updrafts, and there appears to be some increasing
potential for damaging winds along the surging southwestern flank.
Some tornado threat also exists, primarily with more discrete
updrafts ahead of the complex.

..Darrow.. 04/06/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vZ5NIXliluZvVT-o2vL1jgPrCuBdTTSqW-1ZwC16CThpFlhy_-iDCgPs8rUaEafXg4jXtEIt$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 31568523 33348437 33368229 31568318 31568523=20



------------=_1649287770-21664-5642
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
MIME-Version: 1.0

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1649287770-21664-5642--

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 012037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012037=20
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-012230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0432
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023

Areas affected...parts of eastern Pennsylvania...New
Jersey...Delaware and eastern Maryland and southern New York

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107...

Valid 012037Z - 012230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms may rejuvenate along the front as it moves into
eastern Pennsylvania and southern New York, with additional develop
possible ahead of the front from the Delmarva into New Jersey.
Damaging winds are likely, with a risk of isolated tornadoes and
large hail by early evening.

DISCUSSION...Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to move
rapidly east with the cold front, with a relative decrease in severe
wind gusts compared to earlier in the day, due in part to limited
moisture. East of the ongoing central PA/NY activity, temperatures
continue to warm, with a recent trend of a few stations reporting
rising dewpoints across southern NJ and far southeast PA.=20

Satellite imagery shows increasing CU over parts of MD, though this
activity is currently shallow. Over the next 1-2 hours, additional
storms are expected to form from the Delmarva across far eastern PA
and into NJ, as lift increases. Some storms may become supercells,
and the tornado risk will also increase through early evening
coincident with strengthening low-level shear and cooling aloft. Any
increase in dewpoints will also increase the probability of a
tornado. Activity may become linear as the cold front overtakes any
activity ahead of it, with both damaging winds possible across
southern NY and New England.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 04/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-f81p5wXbnWEuj1GKYNd3tAMsTnwfcjuq4NqMj8FPSavqyHxO3C6ATA4D9MSL9YFV-O9Q2R4i= cQI_Tj4ZUEZWj6HDuI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39247451 38807493 38497501 38207510 38057544 38047582
38447622 38787636 39067639 39647623 40677550 41357499
41457433 41357371 41147340 40807352 40587375 40187396
39717402 39477423 39247451=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 122256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122256=20
NCZ000-130100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0432
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Areas affected...Southeast North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 122256Z - 130100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Weak convection will pose a damaging wind risk over the
next 1-2 hours as storms approach the southeastern North Carolina
coast. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Weak, shallow convection migrating eastward across
southern NC has persisted over the past 1-2 hours despite a very
marginal thermodynamic environment (MLCAPE generally near 250 J/kg
or less per recent mesoanalyses and forecast soundings). This
persistence is likely attributable to lift ahead of a subtle
vorticity maximum. Despite the poor buoyancy, low-level warming has
resulted in steep boundary-layer lapse rates up to 7-8 C/km, which
is facilitating downward transfer of stronger mid-level flow.
Surface observations have reported isolated severe winds (59 mph was
recently measured at KFAY), with more frequent gusts around 35-50
mph. While severe winds will likely be confined to very narrow
swaths, the relatively more widespread 35-50 mph winds will pose a
wind damage risk. The onset of nocturnal cooling in the coming hours
will further limit convective intensity and should hinder efficient
mixing, but favorable forcing for ascent may maintain poorly
organized convection (and associated damaging wind threat) to the NC
coast.

..Moore/Thompson.. 04/12/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_V50uk_cOWLBb4xPQLvBNh0WmNCmyn06k7L6qDMc_AbwF7QXJO1RaDE_Q7IRRyk3qMju3wj57= JlivickbzD7vy8ZXnM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 34377914 34667927 34977919 35247862 35497776 35557718
35517645 35307620 35117641 34847676 34567724 34347762
34147791 34107814 34287895 34377914=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)