• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0431

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, April 06, 2022 23:26:25
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1649287590-64300-5597
    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 062326
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062325=20
    TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-070130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0431
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0625 PM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022

    Areas affected...Eastern Tennessee to northwest Georgia

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 103...

    Valid 062325Z - 070130Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds, hail, and a tornado or two
    continues as storms move across TN and northwest GA.

    DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar mosaics over the past hour have
    show a broken line of discrete cells, including a few transient
    supercells, transition into a more linear mode as storms struggle to
    remain ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Periodic bursts
    of more intense convection (denoted by rapid cloud-top cooling in IR
    imagery) and transient mesoscyclones over the past 30 minutes have
    been noted, but the longevity of these features has been poor.
    Meager, but sufficient, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and nearly 50 knots of
    effective bulk shear (per the KMRX VWP) remains conditionally
    supportive of strong to severe convection. So despite the transient
    nature of the intensity of ongoing storms, severe hail, damaging
    winds, and perhaps a brief tornado or two, remain possible for
    portions of WW 103 ahead of the line.

    ..Moore.. 04/06/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oA5kuf1uRuXP432BS7HR7mgpHOhU9AssSDb-HL1W2TashISvxpD-JG1__U2DPKvCTI_9Cx6L$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...

    LAT...LON 34618565 35548474 36238397 36468338 36458280 36088306
    35388367 34868416 34608459 34458504 34408541 34518566
    34618565=20



    ------------=_1649287590-64300-5597
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
    MIME-Version: 1.0

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1649287590-64300-5597--

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, April 01, 2023 20:05:37
    ACUS11 KWNS 012005
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012004=20
    SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-012130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0431
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0304 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023

    Areas affected...southeastern Alabama...southern Georgia...far
    southwestern South Carolina and extreme northern Florida.

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106...

    Valid 012004Z - 012130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado will
    remain this afternoon with isolated thunderstorms.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1955 UTC, regional radar analysis showed isolated
    to widely scattered thunderstorms ongoing ahead of a slow moving
    cold front across portions of southwestern SC, southern GA, and far southeastern AL. A few damaging wind reports have been received over
    the last few hours as storms have gradually moved south and east.
    The risk for damaging gusts may continue as sufficient buoyancy
    (~1000 J/kg of MCLAPE) for strong updrafts exists across far
    southern GA into northern FL. Vertical shear also remains sufficient
    for organized short line segments and marginal supercell structures.
    However, surface flow has continued to veer and weaken with
    southward extent this afternoon.

    Recent HRRR forecasts and observational trends suggest the primary
    severe risk will remain with the more organized storms over southern
    GA and eventually northern FL. Given the potential for storms to
    persist in the unstable and moderately sheared environment, a risk
    for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado should continue for a
    few more hours.

    ..Lyons.. 04/01/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6J25fFM1eu7ELnLx3fBnXBDS82dFbzZ0pUL-1GuIFijqErliWbqa5X_Ayt_HfMaHynZvLzEgN= PJCCXOGbKoNt8N7t8c$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30808593 31008596 31378494 31768383 31978313 32378255
    32528211 32618182 32668159 32618126 32488110 32288102
    31928104 31368150 30948159 30668190 30538225 30538266
    30608448 30638524 30658562 30808593=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)