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ACUS11 KWNS 062002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062002=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-062130-
Mesoscale Discussion 0427
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022
Areas affected...Portions of eastern GA into SC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 062002Z - 062130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
tornadoes should increase over the next couple of hours. Watch
issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...The airmass across eastern GA into much of central and
coastal SC continues to destabilize this afternoon. Surface
temperatures have generally increased into the low/mid 80s
along/south of a differential heating zone, with dewpoints remaining
in the upper 60s to low 70s. Related MLCAPE ranges from 2000-2500
J/kg, aided by steepened mid-level lapse rates evident on upstream
18Z observed soundings. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt will promote
some storm organization, with a mix of supercells and multicells
possible (similar to what is already occurring in southern/central
GA). Given the ample buoyancy available, large hail will be a
concern with any supercells. Damaging winds would also be a threat
with multicellular convection. Although the low-level flow is not
forecast to become very strong this afternoon/evening, enough veering/strengthening of the winds in the boundary layer should
exist to foster some low-level rotation within the strongest
updrafts. Accordingly, isolated tornadoes appear possible. With the
severe threat expected to gradually increase over the next couple of
hours as storms approach this region from the west, watch issuance
will likely be needed.
..Gleason/Mosier.. 04/06/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vNIoI2sYUzcS2JzC5rc0mj7G4p35_G6WJW6KSfoKiF99b2v9JrlxzBkdzzZKZGOYHLLnMb-_$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...
LAT...LON 31908091 31318133 31268234 31468299 31758286 31858245
31878214 32328210 32578193 33678240 33718172 33678076
33448011 33067939 32677980 32408034 32238061 31908091=20
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