• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0427

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, April 06, 2022 20:03:24
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    ACUS11 KWNS 062002
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062002=20
    SCZ000-GAZ000-062130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0427
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0302 PM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern GA into SC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 062002Z - 062130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
    tornadoes should increase over the next couple of hours. Watch
    issuance is likely.

    DISCUSSION...The airmass across eastern GA into much of central and
    coastal SC continues to destabilize this afternoon. Surface
    temperatures have generally increased into the low/mid 80s
    along/south of a differential heating zone, with dewpoints remaining
    in the upper 60s to low 70s. Related MLCAPE ranges from 2000-2500
    J/kg, aided by steepened mid-level lapse rates evident on upstream
    18Z observed soundings. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt will promote
    some storm organization, with a mix of supercells and multicells
    possible (similar to what is already occurring in southern/central
    GA). Given the ample buoyancy available, large hail will be a
    concern with any supercells. Damaging winds would also be a threat
    with multicellular convection. Although the low-level flow is not
    forecast to become very strong this afternoon/evening, enough veering/strengthening of the winds in the boundary layer should
    exist to foster some low-level rotation within the strongest
    updrafts. Accordingly, isolated tornadoes appear possible. With the
    severe threat expected to gradually increase over the next couple of
    hours as storms approach this region from the west, watch issuance
    will likely be needed.

    ..Gleason/Mosier.. 04/06/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vNIoI2sYUzcS2JzC5rc0mj7G4p35_G6WJW6KSfoKiF99b2v9JrlxzBkdzzZKZGOYHLLnMb-_$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...

    LAT...LON 31908091 31318133 31268234 31468299 31758286 31858245
    31878214 32328210 32578193 33678240 33718172 33678076
    33448011 33067939 32677980 32408034 32238061 31908091=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, April 01, 2023 11:18:36
    ACUS11 KWNS 011118
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011118=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-011245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0427
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0618 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023

    Areas affected...parts of central and northern Alabama to
    northwestern Georgia

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 104...

    Valid 011118Z - 011245Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues.

    SUMMARY...Local risk for strong downdrafts, and a brief tornado,
    will continue over the next 1 to 2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar data continues to show a gradual decrease
    in convective intensity/organization overall. However, CAPE/shear
    combination across the region remains sufficient, which will likely
    support continued/local risk for strong gusts and/or a brief tornado
    with occasional ramp-ups in the organization/intensity of updrafts
    locally.

    At this time, we expect that WW issuance will not be needed
    northeast of WW 104, but will continue to monitor evolution of the
    environment, for any signs of renewed/greater potential.

    ..Goss.. 04/01/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Dl67ByWYs3nBfdbkRYSrpWYIgmTMDcbA0UKl_bYPQX6pjHVyD_O58tQUr5Tltu7EsgjPzj8l= 8qZLhDfv6RmQ-6Ed_4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...

    LAT...LON 32128813 32408835 33588761 34638548 34958464 34838413
    34348414 33588459 32128813=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, April 12, 2024 03:36:40
    ACUS11 KWNS 120336
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120336=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-120600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0427
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1036 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

    Areas affected...Northeast North Carolina...Southeast Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 120336Z - 120600Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue for a few more
    hours across parts of northeastern North Carolina and southeast
    Virginia. The threat should be too marginal for weather watch
    issuance.

    DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough is currently moving through the
    southern Appalachians according to water vapor imagery. Ahead of the
    trough, the RAP is analyzing a 60 to 70 knot low-level jet from
    eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia. Thunderstorms are
    developing to the west of the low-level jet in a strongly sheared
    environment, where 0-6 km shear is 50 to 60 knots and 0-3 km
    storm-relative helicity is around 350 m2/s2, according to the
    Raleigh WSR-88D VWP. This should support an isolated tornado threat
    with low-topped supercells. An isolated wind-damage threat will also
    be possible. However, the storms will continue to move northeastward
    toward the coast where instability is considerably weaker. The
    boundary layer will also continue to cool contributing to a more
    stable airmass. This should result in a severe threat becoming more
    marginal with time.

    ..Broyles/Thompson.. 04/12/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4DPK8iaNBt4QZ8ev4SQ5LYdAl2VAihzRaPrAGEIFGfLGwUMEIKR-00M0Z7Mw4K-PFMQrxzixb= bx8D_uno6AutHbHL98$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

    LAT...LON 36957584 37187643 36857723 36257799 35827838 35587837
    35397817 35307780 35397698 35757626 36067583 36437566
    36957584=20


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