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ACUS11 KWNS 061659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061658=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-061900-
Mesoscale Discussion 0423
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022
Areas affected...Portions of north FL...far southeastern AL...and
southern GA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 061658Z - 061900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Developing storms may pose a threat for both large hail
and damaging winds this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...Showers that have been festering over parts of north FL
this morning in a modest low-level warm advection regime have
recently shown signs of intensification, with a few lightning
flashes noted. At least low 70s surface dewpoints are present across
much of north FL into southern GA and vicinity. Diurnal heating of
this moist low-level airmass is supporting around 2000-2500 J/kg of
MLCAPE. Steep mid-level lapse rates observed on the 12Z TLH sounding
are also contributing to this substantial instability. A belt of
enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly flow extends eastward over
this region from a shortwave trough over southern LA/MS. Around
30-40 kt of effective bulk shear should prove favorable for storm
organization, with both supercells and multicells possible. Large
hail may occur with any discrete supercell that can form and remain
sustained. Damaging winds may also occur with any clusters that
develop from congealing storms. Although low-level flow is not
overly strong at the moment, a brief tornado or two appears
possible. The main uncertainty is overall severe storm coverage, as
large-scale ascent should remain modest, and a residual cap exists.
Still, recent radar trends across north FL suggest at least a few
severe storms may develop this afternoon, which may warrant watch
issuance.
..Gleason/Mosier.. 04/06/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r155CII_b-HSSLW-rMVOieBfREhNvT78exYD_laa7Nixg2PAyVBDErWNQhXJ6yRZBgA6zq3R$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30348580 31128552 31568499 31668348 31748282 31908216
32178203 32368174 32318170 32268138 31938085 31208131
29738110 29458117 29558198 29638289 29998369 30128416
30148503 30348580=20
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