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ACUS11 KWNS 060450
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060450=20
MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-060645-
Mesoscale Discussion 0421
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022
Areas affected...Extreme east-central OK...northern AR...Bootheel of
MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 060450Z - 060645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase across far east-central
Oklahoma and northern Arkansas into the Bootheel of Missouri over
the next few hours. Some threat for isolated severe hail exists with
this activity.
DISCUSSION...Surface front is surging south across the southern
Plains late this evening as a mid-level trough advances toward the
mid-MS Valley region. At 0430z, surface front has progressed to a
position from near HRO-MKO-south of OUN. Over the last few hours,
warm advection has contributed to an ever-increasing east-west band
of elevated convection from east of TUL into the Ozarks. As
southwesterly LLJ is expected to remain focused into northern AR, it
appears this activity should continue developing/spreading east as
the front advances deeper into OK/AR. Latest radar data suggests
marginally severe hail may be noted with a storm over Washington
County AR and this may become more common as convection encounters a
more moist environment downstream. Forecast soundings exhibit
adequate elevated buoyancy for robust updrafts given the steep
mid-level lapse rates. Additionally, cloud-bearing shear supports
organized updrafts and a few supercells appear likely. Will continue
to monitor this region for possible severe thunderstorm watch.
..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/06/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s8-Am6TreH-zZYzjbJ167EeI9wF66uihTuevQhmUF8YYn0pYMmMGrEbLYe7Q-nX1aX-AQYWI$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...TSA...
LAT...LON 36249447 36538992 35418997 35269179 35519451 36249447=20
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