• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0420

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, April 06, 2022 00:04:20
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    ACUS11 KWNS 060004
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060003=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-060200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0420
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0703 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

    Areas affected...Coastal Carolinas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 98...99...

    Valid 060003Z - 060200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98, 99 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will
    continue for the next couple of hours before gradually diminishing
    through the late evening as the squall line pushes offshore.

    DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery from the eastern
    Carolinas continues to show discrete to semi-discrete cells ahead of
    an approaching squall line. Several of the more tornadic supercells
    have begun to interact with the line, yielding messier storm modes.
    This trend will continue as the line moves towards the Carolina
    coast over the next few hours. Until this occurs, a supportive
    kinematic environment featuring around 300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH ahead of
    the line will continue to support a tornado threat with both
    discrete cells ahead of the line and embedded circulations. The
    tornado potential may be maximize in the over the next couple of
    hours along and just north of a weak warm front noted near the SC/NC
    border where surface winds are backed to the east/southeast and
    low-level helicity is likely enhanced (as depicted well by latest
    KLTX VWP observations). Storms will likely continue to the
    east-central NC coast over the next few hours, but the need for a
    downstream watch is uncertain and will be conditional on the degree
    of destabilization that can occur over the next couple of hours.

    ..Moore.. 04/06/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pCSzssLpDrOwhX3Ns0H7HfZqwGLDekFCip3Ta14KOdk92XVSJC_iH82mXIXXxhMMrp5Jb045$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

    LAT...LON 32807987 33477998 34097994 34477929 34707847 34517774
    34257758 33797789 33747826 33587874 33147896 32887939
    32727967 32697980 32807987=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, April 01, 2023 02:53:01
    ACUS11 KWNS 010252
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010252=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-010445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0420
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0952 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

    Areas affected...western Tennessee

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 97...

    Valid 010252Z - 010445Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 97 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat continues. Potential for large hail and a
    few tornadoes.

    DISCUSSION...A line of storms across western Tennessee has shown
    better organization in the last hour. Embedded supercell structures
    have been observed on radar. Storms are advancing eastward into an
    increasingly favorable low-level shear. The VAD profile at KNQA has
    becoming elongated and linear in the lower 1 km while still
    maintaining some curvature. Further east, low level shear profiles
    remain large with curvature in the low levels. The VAD profile at
    KOHX (Nashville, TN) is observing 0-1km shear around 700 m2/s2,
    though instability does wane with eastward extent into Middle
    Tennessee. Large hail will be the main threat with the line across
    western Tennessee, with increasing risk for tornadoes as it
    continues to track eastward. The tornado risk will continue with any
    discrete cells (such as those near Memphis west of Waynesboro
    Tennessee.)

    ..Thornton/Edwards.. 04/01/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-qAwOQQToiGJ7EgDMpqpCCN2dWex3P1MbYHqf8H4JyoLfAR0UTpcniAyV0Pes2tIPJwo5mlb5= KzXWAA8VFmCQQqK18I$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 35568998 36028930 36438886 36538809 36478769 36168771
    35568780 35368791 35208803 35138820 35098899 34988983
    35069015 35319011 35379010 35568998=20


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