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ACUS11 KWNS 052127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052126=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-052230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0417
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0426 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

Areas affected...Southeast SC...Southern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 052126Z - 052230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be issued soon across coastal
South Carolina into coastal southern North Carolina.

DISCUSSION...Progressive short-wave trough is rapidly approaching GA
late this afternoon. An expansive MCS has evolved ahead of this
feature from SC-southern GA-FL Panhandle. Within the warm-advection
zone ahead of the MCS, scattered supercells have evolved and they
are spreading northeast as low-level moisture advances inland. Over
the last few hours, surface dew points have risen into the lower 60s
across coastal SC and it appears moisture may spread inland across
southern NC as well. There is increasing concern that potentially
tornadic supercells located upstream over SC may spread into the ILM
CWA soon. Tornado watch appears warranted.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uzPTSRY9mBloNfcy40HwjvjgmllcjpfQavazWwUTAZSLl-mUMU15ZczxSxY2SxW6nqzidySJ$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CAE...

LAT...LON 33547991 34327995 34737849 33817770 33037908 33547991=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 010054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010054=20
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-010300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0417
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...Northern and Eastern Illinois...Southeast
Wisconsin...Western Indiana...Far Southwestern Lake Michigan

Concerning...Tornado Watch 96...

Valid 010054Z - 010300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 96 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat of tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will
continue across much of WW 96 over the next 2 to 3 hours. Parts of
WW 96 may need to be extended in time, beyond the 03Z expiration.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Chicago shows a line of
severe storms moving eastward at nearly 70 knots across northern
Illinois. This line is located within the nose of a 500 mb jet,
which is creating very strong large-scale ascent across central and
northern Illinois. This combined with about 75 knots of deep-layer
shear, evident on the Chicago WSR-88D VWP, will be very favorable
for severe storms. In addition, RAP forecast soundings near Chicago
increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300-350 m2/s2 range
by 02Z. This suggests that the tornado threat will continue early
this evening as the line approaches the western Chicago Metro.
Tornadoes will be most likely with supercells embedded in the line,
and with rotating elements associated with short bowing line
segments. As the line moves eastward into the Chicago and Milwaukee
metro areas, wind speeds could reach as high as 80 knots along the
leading edge of the line.

To the south, other more discrete storms are located to the east of
Lincoln, Illinois. This area is just to the north of an 850 mb jet.
For this reason, a tornado threat will likely be maintained with
these storms. A widespread wind-damage threat will also be likely
with the stronger cells, especially if a nearly continuous line
segment can organize.

..Broyles.. 04/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9LV_xv04RRRqdByXIVonXw_0B3LC_W-WOCmV4D_W7Wojbt0SvTw-NumaNpn-bgNnvJQiA7I8t= a-HHtWZRkSEz9W7QOU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON 42128689 42688719 42938754 43058819 43028883 42888928
42658957 42358967 41788968 41028954 40438936 39618902
39218851 39218787 39458730 39998696 41118678 42128689=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 102335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102335=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-110130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0417
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Areas affected...parts of the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 103...

Valid 102335Z - 110130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe weather has become increasingly
negligible, at least in the near term, but could increase once again
later this evening across at least coastal portions of the Florida
Panhandle around Apalachicola. While the remainder of Tornado Watch
103 may be allowed to expire at 9 PM EDT, trends will need to
continue to be monitored for the possibility of a new severe weather
watch later this evening.

DISCUSSION...The initially strong and better organized cluster of
storms has undergone considerable further weakening as it continues
to progress through an environment characterized by stable
near-surface lapse rates and less unstable low-level inflow across
and inland of northeastern Gulf coastal areas. Outflow, trailing
the forward propagating portion of the remnant convective system now progressing into the Apalachicola vicinity, has advanced 60-70 miles
offshore of the western Florida Panhandle, but appears to have
stalled in advance of a significant mid-level short wave still west
of the lower Mississippi Valley.

Renewed thunderstorm development is ongoing along and southwest of
the stalling portion of the outflow, aided by forcing associated
with strengthening low-level warm advection beneath increasingly
difluent upper flow. It appears that this may increasingly acquire
low-level inflow of moderately unstable air over the next few hours,
with potential for further upscale growth and the evolution of
another organizing convective convective cluster along the outflow
boundary through mid/late evening. While the bulk of the strongest
storms may remain offshore, it is possible that the risk for severe
storms could increase again across coastal areas around Apalachicola
later this evening.

..Kerr.. 04/10/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7wBcADzkAxBO6zULHRuoCDIazKh8F2Ji32oWZTBnCrtUqtNYOtox6e_H4ak62ltKNJ4vzpRg4= v50AqdBDh_86pB_Onc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30448747 30648657 30558558 29918513 29558590 29648715
29908786 30448747=20


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