• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0416

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, April 05, 2022 20:38:52
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    ACUS11 KWNS 052038
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052038=20
    MOZ000-052315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0416
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0338 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

    Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 052038Z - 052315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms, with isolated severe
    potential, are expected to develop ahead of the cold front over the
    next few hours. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main threats,
    though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is not
    currently anticipated given the isolated nature of the severe
    threat.

    DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across Livingston
    County, MO ahead of a cold front as an 80 kt mid-level jet streak
    begins to overspread the Mid MS Valley. EAX/LSX VWPs and some of the
    latest RAP forecast soundings depict relatively weak tropospheric
    flow below 700 mb, but with modest veering, contributing to nearly
    40 kts of effective bulk shear. Still, 6-7 C/km low- and mid-level
    lapse rates atop lower 50s F surface dewpoints are contributing to
    tall-skinny CAPE profiles. While storm coverage should increase
    through the remainder of the afternoon, the mediocre speed shear and instability should temper the severe threat to a degree. Only
    isolated damaging gusts and large hailstones appear likely, and a
    brief tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is not currently
    anticipated.

    ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/05/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rErzyy3Yp4I0uuPp_BYmKX0c0BSYGNze5d7zBUPa6TyxC2q_84vVDHyREGoILKXSC-4n9Va3$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

    LAT...LON 39149442 39689418 39939371 40079316 40159257 39999193
    39509123 38549055 37719038 37399079 37339096 37299173
    37739341 38349413 39149442=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, April 01, 2023 00:43:03
    ACUS11 KWNS 010042
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010042=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-010245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0416
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0742 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

    Areas affected...far eastern Texas...central Louisiana...and far
    western Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 010042Z - 010245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Downstream Tornado Watch likely in the next hour.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of semi-discrete supercells is advancing out
    of east-central Texas into Louisiana. These storms have a history of
    severe hail, including a report of hail up to 1.75". VAD profiles
    from KPOE and KSHV in Ft. Polk, LA and Shreveport, LA have analyzed
    0-2 km SRH around 200 m2/s2. Given this low-level shear, these
    storms will continue to pose a threat of severe hail and a few
    tornadoes. Further development is expected downstream into central
    Louisiana and western Mississippi through the evening. Wind profiles
    become increasingly favorable with downstream extent into western
    Mississippi. The VAD profile at KDGX (Brandon, MS) has observed 0-1
    SRH around 300 m2/s2. Given the improving low-level shear, expect
    potential for tornadoes to increase over the next few hours.

    ..Thornton/Edwards.. 04/01/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_hB5dH0tzGKvEcs1cAF-MvX96Dk07xvrRTk4aKI1dapTM-SgrgqWlBgIoR9y0EjfBolW6dMsm= Q1mc76Xp18hp4paWzE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31449396 31889369 32389293 33479166 34089091 34289055
    34219019 34068995 33858967 32978990 32319040 31119162
    30719191 30459226 30319271 30289324 30359375 30839388
    31449396=20


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