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ACUS11 KWNS 052007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052007=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-052200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0414
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

Areas affected...portions of the northern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 052007Z - 052200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe thunderstorm may develop across
portions of northern Florida. If a storm manages to mature and
become sustained, then damaging gusts, large hail, or a brief
tornado may occur. The severe threat is conditional and storm
coverage is expected to be too sparse to warrant a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Agitated CU continue to build in a broad confluence
zone across the northern Florida Peninsula, driven mainly by strong
diurnal heating. Surface temperatures are approaching 90F amid mid
to upper 60s F dewpoints, contributing to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE.
Modestly curved hodographs evident (via the JAX VAD profile) are
contributing to both 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and around 100
m2/s2 effective SRH. While MRMS mosaic and KJAX radar data show
attempts at convective initiation, stronger deep-layer ascent is
expected to remain farther north, with multiple runs of the HRRR
also showing sparse storm coverage. As such, storm initiation and
coverage is in question. Should a storm mature, the isolated,
discrete storm mode and modest low-level curvature may support a
supercell structure, with all hazards possible. Given the
conditional and sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is
not expected.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sJxjSbnR0369OqQOHXNjVTsi6GhowjuL6VWJRyvjDK6iqkX8n4I0BbsP-5o5w5sPLnukhciy$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...

LAT...LON 28978178 29238209 29788219 30488218 30838193 30728160
30158136 29638116 29338106 28958103 28978178=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 312334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312334=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-010030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0414
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...central Arkansas...far northwestern
Mississippi...and far Southeastern Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 94...

Valid 312334Z - 010030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat increasing over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Two discrete supercells across east central Arkansas
near the Mississippi and Tennessee borders have shown signs of
better organization over the last hour. The southern of the two
cells has a history of large hail up to 1.75". These supercells are
tracking northeastward rapidly around 40-50 mph into a very
favorable environment near and south of the Memphis metro. The VAD
profile from KNQA (Memphis, Tennessee) shows observed 0-1km SRH
around 530 m2/s2. 0-3 km SRH is observed at around 700 m2/s2. In
addition, surface objective analysis shows SBCAPE around 1000-1500
J/kg, with the area near and just south of the Memphis area largely
undisturbed from earlier storms across the northern edge. This
environment continues to support long-track supercells with
potential for strong tornadoes. As these cells continue a
northeastward track they are expected to maintain intensity, given
their discrete nature and downstream favorable environment. The
tornado potential will increase across east Central Arkansas into
eastern Tennessee and far northwestern Mississippi over the next few
hours.

..Thornton/Edwards.. 03/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-kxkMadM4TyxdxSblCQUNcfrlzM4ZtHFrw6FJeJ8OJyaRAZS075u6QvqBx26iX2yOoZgg2S1o= 7ZwLAZOU6WNQzRXIVI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 34339050 34279097 34269145 34379170 34609170 34879159
35209134 35359067 35419039 35378983 35308945 35138944
35018946 34928950 34688989 34549006 34339050=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 101601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101601=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-101730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0414
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Areas affected...far southeast Louisiana...southeast
Mississippi...southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 101...102...

Valid 101601Z - 101730Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 101, 102 continues.

SUMMARY...A swath of damaging wind with gusts to 70 mph is possible
across southeast Mississippi into far southwest Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle over the next couple of hours. A couple of
tornadoes also remain possible.

DISCUSSION...The line of convection over southeast MS and far
southeast LA will continue to develop east at around 60 mph. A swath
of damaging gusts will continue. The corridor of greatest risk over
the next couple of hours will be focused closer to the coast across
southeast MS into southwest AL where better low-level moisture and
instability are noted. This area will also align with more favorable
effective SRH greater than 300 m2/s2 and STP values around 1-2.
Furthermore, the MOB VWP indicated an enlarged, and favorably curved
low-level hodograph. This environment will support tornado
potential, either via line embedded mesovortex generation or cell
mergers into the line, as has been observed via radar over the past
30-60 minutes across southeast LA.

..Leitman.. 04/10/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_A1mlXe2lc7V7Q6sxuEUhrMYITpYaK6Mq5RTIcvxsIJ_0rnJo4bPYev6DLHNxxMKCUfhKgNHu= geHGGQrHhdZdlROuH8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31538967 32078964 32318942 32478833 32348759 31938694
31358677 30458661 30118672 29828719 29558851 29368937
29428990 29719019 30648980 30808970 31538967=20


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