• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0411

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, April 05, 2022 18:50:47
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1649184664-35507-4554
    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 051850
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051850=20
    SCZ000-GAZ000-052045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0411
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0150 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern GA and SC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 051850Z - 052045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will gradually
    increase across eastern Georgia and parts of South Carolina this
    afternoon. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to increase across
    coastal/eastern GA and parts of SC early this afternoon as a 40-50
    kt south-southwesterly low-level jet overspreads this area. Recent
    visible satellite imagery shows agitated cumulus developing across south-central GA. Showers are also increasing across coastal SC as
    the low-level warm advection strengthens, with more elevated
    convection occurring into central SC closer to the surface warm
    front. Supercells may develop across this region over the next
    couple of hours, well ahead of the ongoing convective line now
    entering western/southern GA. These leading cells will likely be
    surface based, as MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg should be prevalent across
    the warm sector. Effective SRH of 200-300+ m2/s2 and 40-50+ kt of
    deep-layer shear will likely support organized updrafts and
    low-level rotation with any discrete cells. A threat for tornadoes
    will exist given the strong low-level shear, and damaging winds may
    eventually become a threat as the line moves eastward across GA. A
    strong tornado or two also appears possible with favorably enlarged
    low-level hodographs and potentially discrete storm mode. A Tornado
    Watch will likely be needed as observational trends dictate.

    ..Gleason/Mosier.. 04/05/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t1F3keKni6v25zOh6b8SMrfiDTLG-lCtVLNfZiG4-q0UMwHsFu9iHfHNcG3zzN5jbckfbsDP$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...

    LAT...LON 31038138 30838201 30648215 30658232 30718301 31508232
    31998216 32338215 32588196 32978219 33368220 33878151
    34048079 33918033 33667968 33167917 32707981 32098073
    31428117 31038138=20



    ------------=_1649184664-35507-4554
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
    MIME-Version: 1.0

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1649184664-35507-4554--

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, March 31, 2023 22:29:31
    ACUS11 KWNS 312229
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 312228=20
    TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-010000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0411
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0528 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

    Areas affected...northern Mississippi...far northwestern
    Alabama...and Middle Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 312228Z - 010000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A Tornado Watch will be issued within the hour downstream
    of WW94.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms across western Arkansas and eastern
    Tennessee will gradually continue to track eastward, with additional development expected downstream, over the next several hours. The
    environment is expected to become increasingly favorable for
    tornadoes, a few of which may be strong. Upstream SRH profiles
    observed at KNQA (Memphis, Tennessee) indicate 0-1 km SRH around 560
    m2/s2. Large curving hodographs will support the potential for
    long-track supercells with risk of strong tornadoes. This
    environment will translate downstream into Middle Tennessee and
    northern Mississippi/Alabama over the next 1-3 hours as surface
    destabilization occurs. A downstream Tornado Watch will be issued
    within an hour.

    ..Thornton/Edwards.. 03/31/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ERzoRPUYKHmMOQs8TwkVzb3s93yMPCqAVg2KiY_alUuRL5E3R04HHmn26fjI-nIS8GYRVRqy= n_5fg_9ucLszoEEsiE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33649038 34148991 35698888 36468830 36688761 36628668
    36418628 36088620 35668630 35278656 34678707 33968758
    33508808 33168846 32918877 32778910 32838959 33079033
    33649038=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)