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ACUS11 KWNS 051806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051805=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-051900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0410
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern AL and the FL
Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 95...

Valid 051805Z - 051900Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 95 continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging wind and isolated tornado threat may persist
across parts of the Florida Panhandle this afternoon. Downstream
watch issuance will probably be needed across this area before 19Z.

DISCUSSION...The southern portion of a convective line is moving
across far southeastern AL and the western FL Panhandle early this
afternoon. Partial clearing of low/mid-level clouds has allowed
surface temperatures to increase into the mid 70s to low 80s. A rich
low-level airmass is also present downstream of the ongoing storms.
Even though the stronger low-level flow will shift
eastward/northward with time into GA this afternoon, 50+ kt of
mid-level westerly flow will persist over the FL Panhandle. Related
strong deep-layer shear will likely support continued organization
of the line. The development of a cold pool, which may already be
occurring along the FL/AL line, would suggest a continued threat for
damaging winds beyond the scheduled 19Z expiration time of Tornado
Watch 95. Sufficient low-level shear may also support an isolated
tornado threat. Therefore, additional watch issuance downstream of
the line across much of the FL Panhandle will probably be needed
before 19Z.

..Gleason/Mosier.. 04/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oNrX5FnWuJhriIitAndYXvqBMKyw_0WwSpGmiROVyHNUV8FaOGF2KebbCVeo9VU1X01N6I25$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON 30308605 30548634 30898619 31108582 31098531 30988504
30688494 30578327 30218333 29688349 29948382 30038423
29868434 29608483 29568510 29658539 30028568 30308605=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 312218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312218=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-010015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0410
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Iowa...Western Illinois...Northeast
Missouri...Extreme Southwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Tornado Watch 93...

Valid 312218Z - 010015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornadoes, very large hail and widespread wind damage will
be likely across the northern and eastern part of WW 93 over the
next 2 to 4 hours. The greatest severe threat will exist from
eastern Iowa into western Illinois and northeastern Missouri.

DISCUSSION...The WSR-88D high-resolution radars in Iowa at Des
Moines and Davenport show four severe line-segments ongoing in
eastern Iowa, with several tornadic supercells ongoing. These storms
are located to the east of a 986 mb surface low, along an
north-to-south axis of moderate instability. A 90 to 110 knot
mid-level jet is translating quickly northeastward toward the Mid
Mississippi Valley at near 50 knots. The left exit region of the
mid-level jet is moving across eastern Iowa and western Illinois,
and is creating strong deep-layer shear and enhanced lift, favorable
for intense supercells. Ahead of the mid-level jet, a 50 to 60 knot
low-level jet will strengthen over the next few hours across the mid Mississippi Valley. This feature will maintain low-level shear very
favorable for tornadic supercells. RAP forecast soundings increase
0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 400 to 450 m2/s2 range
across northwestern Illinois early this suggesting the tornado
threat will increase there. Over the next few hours, the most
favorable corridor for long-track high-end tornadoes will be from
eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois.

In addition to the tornado threat, several swaths of wind damage
will be likely with bowing line segments. This potential could
increase over the next few hours, especially if the line segments
can accelerate in forward speed. Due to the steep mid-level lapse
rates, strong deep-layer shear and relatively cold temperatures
aloft, supercells will also likely be prolific hail producers.

..Broyles.. 03/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6wYp03h0mM0ZwWB_9OBB9_bCOmnkPlv3ST3_tCrJyFLFvpma2yiaStQ0CPQglOzt2AJ8Ld9mr= 8MuDCwwB6GyHJfgiWs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 43509145 43459235 43049300 42379330 41539294 40509210
39409175 38939104 39069027 39368963 39758929 40448910
41308936 42368995 43249070 43509145=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 101002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101001=20
MSZ000-101200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0410
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Areas affected...Central MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 101001Z - 101200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and potentially a brief tornado
are possible across central Mississippi over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Convective line stretching from northern MS
southwestward through central LA has shown a bit more forward
propagation over the past hour or so, as this portion of the line
becomes more perpendicular to the deep-layer shear vector. The
strongest updrafts within the line now exist over central MS, where
a few bowing segments currently exist. Recent VAD profile from KDGX
sample 220-225 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relatively helicity over the
past half hour, which matches well with a small maximum in 0-1 km storm-relatively helicity in the same region on the mesoanalysis.
However, low-level stability persists across the region, with recent mesoanalysis and forecast soundings estimating substantial
convective inhibition remains in place. Even so, a few damaging
gusts may still be able to reach the surface. Additionally, any
sustained mesovortex may be able to produce a brief tornado.
However, the low-level stability is expected to keep the overall
severe potential low, despite the favorable kinematics.

..Mosier/Smith.. 04/10/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!41QgJQatYH4L0QUxZ5Lh2ajSSu1gHHs5IRgm5NDn_ygwU3jFJnMu0tv4sFmVQoePgQC-cu9qr= 7bgmgavWZWJABOu4A0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...

LAT...LON 31509122 31869092 32329031 32948998 33468978 33678928
33478878 32948883 31818928 31488964 31399023 31509122=20


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