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ACUS11 KWNS 051722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051722=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-051845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern AL into southern/central
GA and the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 95...96...

Valid 051722Z - 051845Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 95, 96 continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for numerous to widespread damaging winds
and multiple tornadoes will continue into Georgia this afternoon. A
strong tornado remains possible.

DISCUSSION...Multiple CC minima/TDSs have been noted on area radars
across southeastern AL over the past couple of hours with
circulations embedded within the line and cells ahead of it. As the
northern portion of the line moves from southeastern AL into
west-central GA, there should be a relative minimum in instability
present due to leading stratiform rain. This may temper the
northward extent of the substantial severe risk into central GA.
Still, both low-level and deep-layer shear will remain rather
strong, and supportive of convective organization through this
afternoon. The trailing southern portion of the line will have
access to better instability and low-level moisture, and may pose a
greater severe threat in the near term. If the line can begin to
accelerate and develop a cold pool as some short-term guidance
suggests, then the threat for numerous to potentially widespread
damaging winds would subsequently increase in southern GA and
vicinity. Low-level shear will also remain strong. Accordingly,
tornadoes may occur with circulations embedded within the line, and
with any supercells that can develop ahead of it. A strong tornado
remains possible.

..Gleason.. 04/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!szKEbG571cVUMTSESyEIbwhTIbQoDvyWMfCkimwakC4GEJyRkoaW1wJ6Ujv4WVooGdDMsS8S$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31368658 31828586 32378558 32828522 33108504 33308368
33248293 32908291 32308313 32108312 31618389 30788489
30978694 31368658=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 312215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312214=20
TNZ000-ARZ000-312245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas into western Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 94...

Valid 312214Z - 312245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues.

SUMMARY...A strong (EF2) tornado likely occurred in northeastern
Arkansas, north-northwest of Memphis. The downstream environment
will continue to support the potential for additional EF2+
tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Rotational velocity observations of 50-65 kts from KNQA
across Cross County, AR suggest a likely EF2 tornado occurred. While
the velocity signature has shown some disorganization over the last
several minutes, a strong mesocyclone remains and the downstream
environment will continue to support the potential for additional
strong (EF2+) tornadoes as the KNQA VAD shows over 500 m2/s2 SRH.

..Wendt.. 03/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!65davbiSSmc8yb3Fa8Q-wH3gTx8sNDTZOCs-ySuxQ1NC0kGc9i9_OOAfilBcax03kQZM3WIrF= x5bZY4RPOq-wuKwWI4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...

LAT...LON 35168977 35258943 35518940 35658960 35669001 35549044
35369053 35219044 35178987 35168977=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 100822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100821=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-101015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Areas affected...Upper TX Coast/Southeast
Texas...Southwest/South-Central Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 99...

Valid 100821Z - 101015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 99
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts, some of which could exceed 75 mph,
and line-embedded tornadoes are expected to become more common over
the next few hours. A downstream Tornado Watch will likely be needed
across far southeast Texas and southwest/south-central Louisiana.

DISCUSSION...Convective trends within the ongoing line across
southeast TX/Upper TX Coast continue to suggest organization into a
more formidable squall line is underway. Current storm motion of
this line is eastward at 40 kt, and this storm motion takes it to
the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 99 at 10Z. However, some
additional acceleration is likely as the line becomes better
organized, potentially taking it to the edge of the watch sooner.=20

An outflow boundary remains draped from northern Harris County
eastward in Calcasieu Parish. Interaction with this boundary likely
contributed to the mesovortex currently ongoing over northern Harris
County. This boundary will likely act as the northern extent of the
severe risk over the next few hours.

Damaging wind gusts, some of which could exceed 75 mph, will remain
the primary severe risk. However, line-embedded mesovorticies
capable of tornadoes are also expected to become more common as the
line moves into far southeast TX and southwest LA. As a result, a
Tornado Watch will likely be needed downstream within the next hour.

..Mosier/Smith.. 04/10/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8jMCnMEkK2YLTtIRShNDBsnffGmaX6YynC5BOM0KDWRHxnHQFy9tkugSE9GeJGZnhsIs-y92j= SzME_jYmdLuo5nMrMA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON 30099569 30949474 31029225 30119185 29699259 29579325
29489395 29099489 28699592 30099569=20


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