• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0406

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, April 05, 2022 15:15:46
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    ACUS11 KWNS 051515
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051515=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-051715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0406
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1015 AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of southern/central GA and the FL
    Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 051515Z - 051715Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for several tornadoes and numerous damaging winds
    will spread eastward this afternoon. Some of the tornadoes could be
    strong. Tornado Watch issuance will be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A small bowing complex with a history of producing
    damaging winds and embedded tornadoes is moving eastward across
    southern AL this morning. A couple of low-topped supercells are also
    present ahead of the line. Recent visible satellite trends show a
    fair amount of mid and high-level cloudiness downstream of this
    activity across much of GA and parts of the FL Panhandle. Even so,
    the airmass across this region is expected to destabilize enough to
    support surface-based storms this afternoon. 15Z surface
    observations show temperatures rising into the upper 60s and 70s,
    with dewpoints gradually increasing into the 60s. MLCAPE should
    increase into the 500-1500 J/kg range as this occurs, even though
    mid-level lapse rates should remain fairly modest.

    A 40-50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will spread eastward
    over GA this afternoon. A strongly veering and strengthening wind
    profile with height through mid levels will likely support updraft
    rotation both within the line and with any cells that can remain
    discrete ahead of it. Given the enhanced low-level shear, a threat
    for tornadoes will likely exist, especially with any supercells that
    can remain at least semi-discrete. A strong tornado will remain a
    possibility with favorably enhanced low-level hodographs. The bowing
    line of convection should also remain capable of producing numerous
    damaging winds. Based on recent radar trends, Tornado Watch issuance
    across parts of southern/central GA and vicinity appears
    increasingly likely by 16-17Z (12-1 PM EDT).

    ..Gleason/Mosier.. 04/05/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p1_somIiqC5aYgXWjD_TlMvG7Wy51q-OY-tU2LO1jPs9ba_h0DwIudgn_38b5GX4KheF5nSX$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30728485 31338497 31728499 32288485 32868508 33218450
    33448264 32848234 32338228 31958227 31268253 30658300
    30468364 30488495 30728485=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, March 31, 2023 20:55:30
    ACUS11 KWNS 312055
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 312054=20
    IAZ000-312130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0406
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0354 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

    Areas affected...test

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 93...

    Valid 312054Z - 312130Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93 continues.

    SUMMARY...Likely strong tornado (upper EF2 to EF3) ongoing northeast
    of Ottumwa. The downstream environment will continue to support the
    potential for a strong tornado.

    DISCUSSION...A supercell northeast of Ottumwa has shown increasing
    low-level rotation with a tornado recently confirmed. Current VROT
    observations from KDMX are around 60 kts. Given the environment,
    this would suggest a strong tornado (EF2-EF3) is likely ongoing. The
    deepening surface low and continued backed surface winds in eastern
    Iowa will continue to support a strong/intense tornado threat as
    this storm continues to the north and east.

    ..Wendt.. 03/31/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Abe87pKq6p1LKuK8EB1OBdlNx90JV9Mapa7bM0pxy10poDCjlTJaK0KQIGctagpVsKcuE-dA= Xx1BszqoSjcsd6E9ic$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

    LAT...LON 41039220 41039243 41219247 41599221 41909176 41899137
    41629134 41399161 41039220=20


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