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ACUS11 KWNS 050648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050647=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-050915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

Areas affected...parts of Louisiana into central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 050647Z - 050915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage through early
morning, with a tornado, wind and hail threat.

DISCUSSION...A batch of thunderstorms currently exists over northern
LA near a warm front, and is well ahead of an MCS now over northeast
TX. The air mass into northeast LA and central MS is currently
moistening rapidly, and mid to possibly upper 60s F dewpoints are
expected to surge north through the night. At the same time, SRH
will increase with effective values over 300 m2/s2 common.=20

Lift along the warm front is clearly sufficient as strong cells have
increased rapidly over northeast LA recently. As moisture and
low-level shear increase, these storms, and additional storms that
form later tonight, will have tornadic potential in addition to
hail. Aside from the warm-front focused storms, the area near New
Orleans and extending into southern MS will need to be monitored for
another area of storms potentially forming around 10-12Z. These
storms would also have the potential to produce tornadoes given
upper 60s F dewpoints.

..Jewell.. 04/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tdmk1bvivp8HQpC_ExFb8TIL4m1-hvXvCbVeubbXmS7PvXfy3qfq6eSEmKUJW2WDn_ES5FMa$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31798893 31198906 30818931 30488987 30339042 30349129
30669173 30939201 31509202 31979213 32189229 32429256
32599265 33189249 33379083 33269010 32958953 32328911
31798893=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 312038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312038=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-312245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...southeastern MN and south-central WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 312038Z - 312245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail may develop and spread northward
from northern IA into southeastern MN. Locally severe thunderstorms
may also eventually spread into south-central WI towards this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows the mid-level low over the
north-central Great Plains gradually moving towards the upper MS
Valley. Strong large-scale ascent has overspread the northern
periphery of the warm sector over north-central IA. Scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms will likely spread downstream towards
the northeast within an adequately unstable (500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE)
and strongly sheared environment to the north of the warm front. As
this surface-based thunderstorm activity over northern IA moves
across and north of the warm front, the storms will become elevated
but a few of the stronger storms may pose a risk for large hail. At
this time the threat appears localized but convective trends will be
monitored.

..Smith/Hart.. 03/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4m78LmrfYj5vlcjiP1kHtm0EaMYkHL3NkL7uMREiOFAX0EfRa1BA09mRHZESJZSOB-Lz9XjKg= MSLzh9RbBhPY4Hm9kU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 43529394 44039332 44269151 43908919 43398852 43188877
43538996 43529394=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 100032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100032=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-100200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Areas affected...southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 100032Z - 100200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong storms have developed across southeast Texas. A
watch is possible if these storms exhibit better organization over
the next 1 to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms have developed within a 850mb
confluence axis from near Houston and northeastward. A very moist,
unstable environment is present across southeast Texas with
dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low to mid 70s
yielding 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear of 55 to 60 knots
will support supercells as the primary storm mode. Forcing for
ascent is the primary question as some shortwave ridging is building
into the region ahead of the trough digging into northern Texas.
This may restrict a greater threat across the region and keep the
severe threat more isolated. Low-level shear is not that strong with
some veering, but less than 30 knots of flow in the lowest 2 km.
Therefore, any stronger supercells which may develop, will have some
tornado threat.

..Bentley.. 04/10/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9pUNSVpLiHFwFTfePhM7PLfbcJlZJhr6CbUCgH4ff9rTYd4qhw7izN8OzVzFwv-fmLkck0Vbs= YRU2hF_K839s2jkv3w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 29979508 31279408 31339263 31169266 30699275 30139292
29679336 29579418 29409469 29269467 29159492 29979508=20


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