• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0398

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, April 04, 2022 23:25:41
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1649114772-64300-3817
    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 042325
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042325=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-050100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0398
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0625 PM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022

    Areas affected...Central/North-Central Texas and extreme
    South-Central Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 042325Z - 050100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be issued by 0030-0100z for
    portions of Central/North-Central Texas.

    DISCUSSION...Moist boundary-layer surge, characterized by mid 60s
    surface dew points, is advancing north across central TX and will
    soon spread into the Metroplex. Latest satellite and radar imagery
    support this with scattered showers now evident just east of Waco
    into Ellis County. Given the approaching short wave there is
    increasing concern that scattered supercells will evolve within this
    more buoyant, and strongly sheared environment. Current thinking is
    the warm frontal position may not advance appreciably north from its
    current position and given the amount of convection observed over
    southern OK this seems reasonable. As LLJ strengthens into the
    Arklatex this evening there is increasing concern for the potential
    for tornadoes. Tornado watch will likely be warranted by 01z across
    this region.

    ..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/04/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tDlFFb5QNLbD4VmmJQ_5c19NyqXvQJfWyZOQWgy4_wNvCfue6X1oWopBWMhxRepkWxbd-5nu$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 31649784 34009674 33749523 31419622 31649784=20



    ------------=_1649114772-64300-3817
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
    MIME-Version: 1.0

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1649114772-64300-3817--

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, March 31, 2023 18:37:28
    ACUS11 KWNS 311837
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311836=20
    MOZ000-IAZ000-312030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0398
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0136 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

    Areas affected...north central missouri into far southeastern Iowa

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 93...

    Valid 311836Z - 312030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe potential is expected to increase this afternoon as
    storms mature into north-central and northeastern MO. All severe
    hazards are possible including strong long-track tornadoes and very
    large hail.

    DISCUSSION...Initial cellular activity along a line from CDJ to GLY
    developed ahead of the dryline across portions of western MO. While
    low-level flow remains veered across the area, storm mode is
    expected to remain mostly cellular as storms transit into portions
    of north-central, northeastern MO and far southern IA over the next
    couple of hours. Steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km and 60-70
    kt of effective shear from the 18z SGF sounding remains highly
    favorable for supercellular updrafts. Surface winds farther east are
    more southerly, favoring low-level updraft rotation. The initial
    severe threat is likely to remain large to very large hail given the
    favorable storm mode and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Entrainment of
    drier air may also favor a slower ramp up as storms take sometime to
    mature. However, as storms shift towards portions of north-central
    and northeastern MO/southern IA, the increase in low-level shear and
    favorable buoyancy may support a greater risk for tornadoes later
    this afternoon.

    ..Lyons.. 03/31/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-6qPHnADFCRaLWUXWzDSc9SE0lUqAIHUua2A6S_w9qOZM0ozz68ReV2fczVz9MxJoPNs8JrBh= UwmUYIu8pWAMRWaYfg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

    LAT...LON 40499317 40639289 40709267 40779225 40589206 40109194
    39629198 39259216 38889247 38709288 38649310 38759347
    38899363 39159384 39449385 39919392 40349341 40499317=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)