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ACUS11 KWNS 042235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042235=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-050000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0397
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022

Areas affected...Northwest TX...Southwestern OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 91...

Valid 042235Z - 050000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 91
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will gradually sag southeast across ww91
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Weak, but focused ribbon of low-level warm advection
continues from northwest TX into south-central OK early this
evening. As approaching short-wave trough shifts east over the next
3-6hr, LLJ should strengthen and shift downstream into the Arklatex.
This will encourage a weak surface wave to evolve into a more
identifiable surface low over northeast TX. Numerous
showers/thunderstorm clusters have evolved along this warm-advection
corridor and will continue to expand in areal coverage along the
warm front that should remain draped along the Red River. Latest
MRMS data suggests the strongest updrafts are producing hail
near/greater than 1 inch. Wind also remains a threat with
surface-based supercells/bows. Overall threat is expected to
gradually sag southeast across the watch this evening.

..Darrow.. 04/04/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u0iaIjKRl7ClrUZWeYyvlU1AcVx44kQTst5NnktqdVq3pO0Y1lL73S8M9CiFTn1_xeDKcTXT$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 31690000 34759903 34759712 31709812 31690000=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 311833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311832=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-312030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0397
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...far northeast MO...west-central and central IL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 93...

Valid 311832Z - 312030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93 continues.

SUMMARY...Monitoring near-storm environmental trends (surface
dewpoints and hodograph modification) through 330pm for increasing
tornado potential.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms near
Quincy, IL as of 130pm is quickly moving northeastward on the
northeastern rim of richer low-level moisture. Surface observation
trends have shown surface dewpoints near the MS River rising into
the 60-62 deg F range. Both the 18z Lincoln, IL and Davenport, IA
raobs showed lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios near 9.5 g/kg (upper
50s surface dewpoints). Consequently, the increase from upper 50s
to lower 60s deg F dewpoints appears to be critical for increasing
the buoyancy profile per the raob observations and the latest
RAP/NAM forecast soundings across the discussion area. Equally
important, the model-based forecast hodographs modify substantially
during the 130-330pm timeframe and become much more supportive for
low-level mesocyclone development. If appreciable low-level
moisture (lower 60s dewpoints) can advect quickly enough
north-northeastward immediately in advance of the evolving cells,
consequently, the tornado risk will markedly increase. In the
meantime, a gradual intensification is expected with large to
potentially very large hail (1.0-2.5 diameter hail) possible with
the stronger updrafts that evolve into supercells.

..Smith.. 03/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5lNyZzp1CxVorYyjQO1XopGdLA6CXBuAnRzjUVHYZrM1qXLITiZV0DCJPyx5X6n7NZpBqF-9m= xocKb26ROuixubfZXk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 40009207 40379193 41059030 41108972 40858932 40528920
39829074 39809158 40009207=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 091712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091712=20
TXZ000-091845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0397
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Areas affected...Portions of central TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 94...

Valid 091712Z - 091845Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds
continues. The need for and timing of a downstream watch into east
Texas remains unclear.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have remain focused along/very near the
convectively reinforced outflow boundary that is draped southwest to
northeast across central TX. Mergers/interactions between various
thunderstorms have led to an overall messy convective mode. Even so,
the environment remains conditionally favorable for severe
convection, including supercells, given adequate instability and
ample deep-layer shear. In the short term, the tornado threat will
continue to be supported by a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level
jet providing generally 200-300 m2/s2 of effective SRH. But, the
best chance for tornadoes will probably occur with any supercell
that can develop/persist on the southern flank of the ongoing
convection. Similarly, the hail threat will be tied to a supercell
being able to remain at least semi-discrete, which remains
questionable given the ongoing thunderstorm evolution.
Severe/damaging wind potential may increase through the early
afternoon if a cluster can consolidate and spread eastward. The need
for and timing of a downstream watch into east TX remains uncertain,
as widespread cloud cover is slowing airmass recovery along/near the
surface boundary in the wake of earlier convection.

..Gleason.. 04/09/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_cwDceOJ7z7A5ENU4wMJ1Ku9DXV27VFZLXy5otY1pvSdqFNhsUaT8eZmZr7lkTqVxFtuni7T6= 6tNEPBQquZjAKnBnNI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 31279834 31919685 32159564 31969524 31389498 30839633
30489768 30449836 31019839 31279834=20


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