• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0217

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, March 07, 2022 10:06:29
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071006
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071005=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-071130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0217
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0405 AM CST Mon Mar 07 2022

    Areas affected...Western KY...Northern Middle TN

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 36...

    Valid 071005Z - 071130Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 36 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gust and/or tornadoes
    continues across western KY and northern Middle TN.

    DISCUSSION...Line of thunderstorms along the front continues to
    progress eastward across western KY. This line has largely remained
    free from any bowing/accelerating line segments thus far, with the
    exception of the portion of line near Calloway County KY. Current
    limiting factor appears to be the modest buoyancy (i.e mesoanalysis
    estimates MLCAPE is around 200 J/kg) and strengthening convective
    inhibition. Even with only a few bowing segments observed so far and
    limited buoyancy, the low-level flow downstream of the line remains
    very strong, suggesting the potential still exists for
    bowing/accelerating line segments capable of producing strong wind
    gusts and/or embedded tornadoes.

    ..Mosier.. 03/07/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oa3q4CBs5kM4yx3Lmwi5VUbt67qTUagHBOLy92pfLzH5mPYgM8AAvkp4602wwswaJZWdX8Ha$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 37248777 37668703 38008632 37578613 36948674 36418743
    36518855 37248777=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, March 01, 2023 23:27:45
    ACUS11 KWNS 012327
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012327=20
    TXZ000-020130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0217
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0527 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2023

    Areas affected...Central/Northeast Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 012327Z - 020130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Conditional Risk of severe thunderstorms exists this
    evening from central into northeast Texas.

    DISCUSSION...Surface front has stalled across TX early this evening,
    currently extending from Paris-Terrell-LLano. Despite extensive
    cloudiness, boundary-layer heating has contributed to steeper
    low-level lapse rates across south-central TX. This has sufficiently
    weakened the cap along the boundary such that a lone thunderstorm
    has recently evolved over Burnet County. While 12z model guidance
    suggests a subtle mid-level speed max may be ejecting across this
    region at this time, it's not apparent any meaningful short wave is
    associated with this feature. Additionally, stronger low-level warm
    advection is focused from the Arklatex downstream into the mid South
    region where more concentrated convection is currently noted.
    Despite modest buoyancy, forecast soundings suggest updrafts may
    continue to struggle due to capping.

    ..Darrow/Guyer.. 03/01/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!94fADpjXczCre0X_Xw1sm-KrgUkvb9RtNQm7pPQU5popgDBhDgs3WPryEhGX6AxlBrNUTO-ox= gJik1vf20KlPJg45zo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...

    LAT...LON 30599846 31669767 33209584 32359510 30429776 30599846=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, March 13, 2024 03:34:32
    ACUS11 KWNS 130334
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130334=20
    MOZ000-130500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0217
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1034 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

    Areas affected...parts of west central missouri and southwest
    Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 130334Z - 130500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Some thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe
    hail remains possible, but appears likely to generally diminish
    through 11 PM-Midnight.

    DISCUSSION...Near the western periphery of the modestly
    strengthening and slowly veering southerly low-level jet, stronger
    ascent associated with low-level warm advection and inflow of better
    low-level moisture remain focused on the western flank of the
    upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms, east of the Greater Kansas
    City area. Similar forcing and stronger convective layer shear may
    also be maintaining the more isolated cell now to the east-southeast
    of Joplin, with the strongest storms still accompanied by a
    continuing risk for severe hail based on latest MRMS data. However,
    warming farther aloft is slowly underway across much of western
    Missouri, as the the mid-level short wave trough and associated cold
    core progress east-southeastward into the middle Mississippi Valley.
    It appears that this will contribute to substantive weakening of
    convection and diminishing hail potential through 04-06Z.

    ..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/13/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4_mEiKQtf-3vReZr9tk4jFsKNnodG9fH9-tVLH-byKQR8Tf7qFfNfwPojKY08GkRfCv2L7HK7= j37og4FgFaoOcHZljA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...

    LAT...LON 38909404 39379413 39359344 38859318 38459345 37959363
    37559377 36819385 36979435 37309408 38369376 38909404=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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