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ACUS11 KWNS 012021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012020=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-012145-
Mesoscale Discussion 0385
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Fri Apr 01 2022
Areas affected...Texas Panhandle vicinity into southwestern Oklahoma
and adjacent western North Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 012020Z - 012145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...High-based convection may pose local risk for brief/strong
outflow gusts, but WW issuance is not anticipated due to sparse
nature of the threat anticipated over the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Surface dewpoints have risen into the 30s across the
Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma vicinity within southerly flow ahead of a
weak low over the northwestern Panhandle. This low -- associated
with a rather vigorous/mobile short-wave trough crossing the
southern Rockies at this time -- is focusing low-level ascent, and
with the low-level moistening beneath steepening lapse rates aloft,
the ascent has combined with very modest destabilization to support
isolated, high-based convective development.=20=20
With filtered heating through broken cloud cover to continue,
modest/additional destabilization will continue through peak heating
despite the meager boundary-layer moisture. Deeply-mixed, inverted
V-type thermodynamic profiles -- as depicted in model point-forecast
soundings -- are similar to typical localized strong wind gust
events which occur over the West in the warm season, but in this
case displaced eastward onto the high Plains. As such, similar to
those western events, very localized potential for strong,
evaporatively driven wind gusts would exist under any of the
stronger high-based updrafts. While current expectations are that
risk should remain minimal/isolated, and thus that a WW will likely
not be required, we will continue to monitor the area for signs of
any upscale convective growth which could suggest more substantial
coverage of the threat.
..Goss/Grams.. 04/01/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qdfG38fpVfE35G0iDBkJ9uRNo_A_h5Arvjp4cBgSfCSqUp9ULMY6pUrUfdCdUQlgKo_D7HC2$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35080309 35610271 36300146 36250065 35259849 34429812
33479855 33610016 33470187 34390282 35080309=20
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