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ACUS11 KWNS 011848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011848=20
FLZ000-012115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Fri Apr 01 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southern Florida Atlantic coastal areas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011848Z - 012115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong storms appear possible across Atlantic
coastal hours, mostly north of Miami, near the Palm Beach area, by
4-5 PM EDT. These may pose a risk for producing localized,
potentially damaging, surface gusts.

DISCUSSION...Outflow from persistent convection near a weak surface
cold front has advanced south of the Vero Beach and Avon Park
vicinities. To the south of this boundary, the seasonably moist
boundary layer has become increasingly well mixed with continuing
insolation, and temperatures warming into the upper 80s have
contributed to moderately large CAPE.

Near surface flow is generally light and southwesterly to westerly,
with low-level confluence and convergence becoming focused inland of
far southeastern coastal areas into the Palm Beach vicinity, where
mixed-layer CAPE may be maximized around 2000 J/kg. This appears to
be just ahead of a subtle/low amplitude perturbation (perhaps
convectively generated), which has migrated inland to the north of
Fort Myers and may reach Atlantic coastal areas near/north of Palm
Beach by 20-21Z. Associated forcing for ascent may contribute to
enhancement of scattered thunderstorm development now beginning to
initiate in the unstable environment.

Any substantive upscale convective growth may take place largely
offshore. However, at least isolated to widely scattered strong
thunderstorm development appears possible near coastal areas, in the
presence of modest deep-layer shear. These may pose at least some
risk for small hail. And latent cooling due to melting and
evaporation, coupled with heavy precipitation loading, may
contribute to a strong downburst or two with locally strong surface
gusts, before shifting offshore.

..Kerr/Grams.. 04/01/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oeBfXOxT2eITnefFYaHWwhoXvO6Txqx-cQvSDi9zs2eFO12oTMzwrQTWk_WLvqXm-UUQ326C$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

LAT...LON 27848043 27817943 26457992 26468044 27288067 27848043=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 300152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300151=20
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-300545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

Areas affected...Eastern NY...VT...western NH...far western MA...and
far northeastern PA

Concerning...Snow Squall=20

Valid 300151Z - 300545Z

SUMMARY...Rapid visibility reductions with bursts of heavy snow are
possible with any snow squalls that develop into the overnight
hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations depict an eastward-
advancing cold front extending south-southwestward across eastern
NY. While surface temperatures ahead of the front remain in the
upper 30s to middle 40s (warmer with southward extent), temperatures
are rapidly falling along/behind the cold front into the lower 30s.
Behind the cold front, a mix of rain and moderate to heavy snow are
being observed across east-central NY, and this precipitation shield
will spread eastward with the cold front into the overnight hours.
Nocturnal cooling combined with cold-air advection behind the front
should generally support a transition to mostly snow with eastward
extent -- especially over higher elevations. In addition, strong
linear forcing for ascent accompanying the frontogenetic circulation
should intersect the dendritic growth zone -- favoring bursts of
heavy snow and the potential for snow-squall conditions, given steep
antecedent low-level lapse rates and 30-35-kt 0-2-km flow (per
regional VWP data). Rapid visibility reductions and strong gusts
could accompany the stronger/more-organized snow bands into the
overnight hours.

..Weinman.. 03/30/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6N2-CqAjUtnIWHO_GsahpjnxiO_KHDCJB1fB92iW1RoTrQ8u-1ekwiITn2a_f107tNEVmObeY= 1tTiJ4zvBvE5nmwi1o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON 42967482 44337376 45017333 45087251 45117180 45427113
45317082 44327111 43457180 41737399 41427480 41777585
42107581 42967482=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 081950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081949=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-082145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024

Areas affected...eastern portions of central Texas into adjacent
western Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 90...

Valid 081949Z - 082145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 90 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe hail, and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes, may continue to increase with a couple of evolving
supercells, before thunderstorms possibly begin consolidating into
an organizing cluster near and north of the College Station and
Huntsville into Lufkin vicinities toward 5-6 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have increased in coverage and intensity
within a narrow corridor, which likely coincides with the
northern/leading edge of stronger mid-level inhibition, beneath
building ridging within the subtropical branch of westerlies.=20
Models suggest that one on two speed maxima within this regime will
contribute to strengthening upper divergence along this corridor
during the next few hours, supporting potential for considerable
further upscale convective growth.

A couple of supercells which have recently evolved to the southeast
of the College Station and Huntsville vicinities may continue to
intensify in the near term, aided by increasing inflow of moist
boundary-layer air characterized moderately large CAPE, in the
presence of strengthening shear. Gradually, though, it appears that
forcing associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may
tend to become focused to the north of College Station and
Huntsville into Lufkin vicinity, where strongest storms may evolve
into an increasingly organized cluster by 22-23Z.

..Kerr.. 04/08/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5e1aflgstvUqLmYSwqxhF5rv_F72s3nVeKNHDVcQHSlc89de3DKFfV2LcW_OBOEoVSsvOIxi6= INjKXUFvDFJV-3sIs0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 30879632 31769595 32149397 31559349 30849365 30529494
30449572 30369612 30879632=20


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