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ACUS11 KWNS 070732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070731=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-070900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CST Mon Mar 07 2022

Areas affected...Southwest KY...Southern IL...Far Southwest
IN...Northern Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 070731Z - 070900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm risk is expected to persist
eastward and a new watch will likely be needed downstream of Tornado
Watch 34 across portions of southwest KY and perhaps Middle TN.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms currently extends along a cold
front from about 35 miles north of EVV southwestward through
southern IL, far southeast MO and into far northeast AR. A few
bowing segments have been noted within the line over the last
several hours, with the most recent segment now approaching the MO
Bootheel. Winds preceding this line are very strong, with surface
observations showing numerous 30-35 kt gusts and the KPAH VAD
recently sampling around 70 kt at 1km AGL. Buoyancy ahead of the
line is modest, with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE ranges from just
over 500 J/kg near southwest MO to closer to 250 J/kg closer to the
IL/IN/KY border intersection. This limited buoyancy will likely keep
storm severity muted near the OH River while the combination of
buoyancy and shear results in some severe potential farther south
over most of southwest KY. The primary severe risk will be damaging
wind gusts, although the strength of the low-level flow suggests
embedded QLCS tornadoes are also possible. The resulting severe risk
will likely necessitate the need for new watch downstream of Tornado
Watch 34.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uqq0pxFf_GW_bPDQUkY4PTz4kQG5p5gsV4NJS3qmUH829aOCrQ4nkQP7yZwoWTkSW1mf0oO-$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 36639014 37128959 37538897 37968811 38058688 37468646
36848666 36548721 36498805 36508919 36478972 36639014=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 012022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012022=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-012215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2023

Areas affected...Arklatex...South/Central Arkansas...Northern
Mississippi...and western Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 012022Z - 012215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop and increase in
coverage by the afternoon/evening. More discrete cells may pose risk
of large hail and a few tornadoes. Tornado Watch likely needed by
21-22z.

DISCUSSION...Current surface objective analysis and data from 18z
soundings at SHV and LZK show some progress made in eroding CIN
across the corridor from Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi.
However, daytime heating is well underway with surface obs showing
temperatures across southern Louisiana and Mississippi approaching
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Moisture is in place with mid to upper
60s dew points into central Arkansas and Tennessee. Trends within
CAM guidance have been for development of more discrete cells
initially across the Arklatex region by 21-23z, where the cap has
been weakening within the last couple of hours. Once storms develop,
initial discrete cells will be capable of large hail, given deep
layer shear profiles of 60-65 kts. Any cells that can become surface
based near the AR/LA border will support some risk for tornadoes
given adequate low level shear. As the low level jet gradually
strengthens late afternoon/evening, elongating shear profiles and
increasing 0-1 km shear should support a greater risk for tornadoes.
A Tornado Watch is likely by 21-22z.

..Thornton/Gleason.. 03/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9939DHcoRWhZDe2rjqpBuV3O9M_mQ_xV_1ZgLwSiGVlbrCcT9XT1gSdKqslSro9u2Qo1py_ui= iPSEWuRyPTn9LQWDFc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 34149458 34509434 34849311 34929245 35119181 35399067
35518946 35518847 35068818 34228838 33958868 33539063
33159273 33049352 33099421 33169470 33449477 33799475
34149458=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 101614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101613=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-102015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Ohio into western/central Pennsylvania
and western New York

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 101613Z - 102015Z

SUMMARY...Snow squall potential will persist into the early
afternoon hours across northeast Ohio into western/central
Pennsylvania, and western New York.

DISCUSSION...Over the past few hours, a combination of broken cloud
cover and low/mid-level cold air advection over the upper OH river
valley and lower Great Lakes region has allowed for low-level lapse
rates to steepen to 7-8 C/km. These steep lapse rates are supporting
shallow convection across central to western PA with a history of
producing snow squall conditions (reduced visibility to 0.25 mile at
times with moderate snowfall rates and wind gusts upwards of 25-30
mph). The expectation is for this thermodynamic regime to largely
remain in place through at least early afternoon before cold air
advection in the 925-850 mb layer wanes later in the day. As
low/mid-level destabilization continues for the next few hours,
SBCAPE values should approach 250 J/kg, resulting in an
intensification of precipitation/snowfall rates within convective
snow showers. Recent high-res guidance suggests additional snow
bands will propagate off of Lake Erie through early afternoon into
northeast OH, PA, and western NY. One such band is evident in
regional reflectivity across far western NY, lending confidence in
this overall scenario. Consequently, the potential for snow squalls
should continue for the next several hours.

..Moore.. 03/10/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5CYnPGEJfKC-NP8aeVohY_xrk-sj3nxXrGLxMd5-4ld3pMRPtJk-uvlEesih6zdQckOfrqxgb= 5LYGet0yniW36WPIW4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 41328191 41648123 42557910 42757886 43057888 43307869
43187713 42927671 42457659 41767653 41117684 40297758
39927815 39757875 39727937 39747984 40028047 40508133
40828171 41328191=20


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