• U.S. fires four times larger, three time

    From ScienceDaily@1:317/3 to All on Wednesday, March 16, 2022 22:30:44
    U.S. fires four times larger, three times more frequent since 2000
    New analysis confirms a palpable change in fire dynamics already
    suspected by many

    Date:
    March 16, 2022
    Source:
    University of Colorado at Boulder
    Summary:
    Fires have gotten larger, more frequent and more widespread across
    the United States since 2000, according to a new article. The
    research shows that large fires have not only become more common,
    they are also spreading into new areas, impacting land that
    previously did not burn.



    FULL STORY ========================================================================== Fires have gotten larger, more frequent and more widespread across the
    United States since 2000, according to a new University of Colorado
    Boulder-led paper.

    Recent wildfires have stoked concern that climate change is causing
    more extreme events, and the work published today in Science Advances
    shows that large fires have not only become more common, they are also spreading into new areas, impacting land that previously did not burn.


    ========================================================================== "Projected changes in climate, fuel and ignitions suggest that we'll
    see more and larger fires in the future. Our analyses show that those
    changes are already happening," said Virginia Iglesias, a research
    scientist with CU Boulder's Earth Lab and lead author of the paper.

    To evaluate how the size, frequency and extent of fires have changed in
    the United States, Iglesias and her colleagues analyzed data from over
    28,000 fires that occurred between 1984 and 2018 from the Monitoring
    Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) dataset, which combines satellite imagery
    with the best available state and federal fire history records.

    The team found that there were more fires across all regions in the
    contiguous United States in 2005-2018 compared to the previous two
    decades. In the West and East, fire frequency doubled, and in the Great
    Plains, fire frequency quadrupled. As a result, the amount of land
    burned each year increased from a median of 1,552 to 5,502 square miles
    (4,019 to 14,249 km2) in the West and from 465 to 1,295 square miles
    (1,204 to 3,354 km2) in the Great Plains.

    The researchers also took a closer look at the most extreme fire events
    in each region. They found that in the West and Great Plains, the largest wildfires grew bigger and ignited more often in the 2000s. Throughout
    the record, large fires were more likely to occur around the same time
    as other large fires.

    "More and larger co-occurring fires are already altering vegetation
    composition and structure, snowpack, and water supply to our communities," Iglesias explained. "This trend is challenging fire-suppression efforts
    and threatening the lives, health, and homes of millions of Americans." Finally, the team discovered that the size of fire-prone areas increased
    in all regions of the contiguous United States in the 2000s, meaning that
    not only is the distance between individual fires is getting smaller
    than it was in the previous decades but also that fires are spreading
    into areas that did not burn in the past.

    These results confirm a palpable change in fire dynamics that has been suspected by the media, public and fire-fighting officials. Unfortunately,
    the results also align with other troubling risk trends, such as the fact
    that development of natural hazard zones is also increasing wildfire
    risk. "These convergent trends, more large fires plus intensifying
    development, mean that the worst fire disasters are still to come,"
    said William Travis, co-author and Earth Lab deputy director.

    The study authors suggest that to adapt and build resilience to wildfire impacts, planners and stakeholders must account for how fire is changing
    and how it is impacting vulnerable ecosystems and communities.


    ========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by
    University_of_Colorado_at_Boulder. Note: Content may be edited for style
    and length.


    ========================================================================== Journal Reference:
    1. Virginia Iglesias, Jennifer K. Balch, William R. Travis. U.S. fires
    became larger, more frequent, and more widespread in the
    2000s. Science Advances, 2022; 8 (11) DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abc0020 ==========================================================================

    Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/03/220316145723.htm

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